As a clean energy source, wind power has not changed the momentum of rapid development despite the current problem of curtailing wind power. However, behind the menacing situation, the development of wind power is facing many hidden troubles. The shortage of funds, the blind expansion, and the replacement of new generations have made the development of wind power a wild horse that has become disillusioned, but it has lost its way, and it has become a confused swamp.
29.72 million kilowatts wind power installed
With the issuance of the approval plan for the third batch of wind power projects in the “Twelfth Five-Year Planâ€, the total installed capacity approved by the three wind power projects has exceeded 80 million kilowatts. However, experts in the industry pointed out that due to factors such as wind curtailment and hard loans, it is a big problem that these approved projects can start smoothly during the “12th Five-Year Plan†period.
In March 2012, the National Energy Administration issued the “Circular on Printing and Distributing the Approval Plan for the Second Batch of Wind Power Projects for the Twelfth Five-Year Planâ€. It is planned to approve the planned installed capacity of wind power projects totaling 16.76 million kilowatts. In July of last year, the second batch of foundations was again established. It added 8.52 million kilowatts. Prior to this, the National Energy Administration announced in the second half of 2011 that “the first batch of plans to approve wind power projects in the 12th Five-Year Plan†had planned to approve a total of 28.83 million kilowatts of wind power projects. Therefore, the approved total installed capacity of the three wind power projects reached 82.83 million kilowatts.
On March 19, the “Circular on Printing and Distributing the Third Wind Power Project Approval Plan for the Twelfth Five-Year Plan†issued by the National Energy Administration referred to as the “Notification†and the project listed in the third batch of wind power approved projects in the “Twelfth Five-Year Planâ€. A total of 491, with a total installed capacity of 27.97 million kilowatts. In addition, four wind power grid-connected operations and demonstration projects are scheduled to be completed with a total installed capacity of 750,000 kilowatts. The above two types of projects total 28.72 million kilowatts. The approved plans for Heilongjiang, Jilin and Inner Mongolia will be studied separately.
Compared with the previously approved second batch of wind power projects, the approval of the expansion of the total installed capacity caused the industry to be surprised. Lin Boqiang, director of the Energy Economics Research Center at Xiamen University, said that the substantial capacity expansion is largely to solve the problem of overcapacity in China's wind power equipment. In addition, the project has been approved under the conditions where the current problem of wind curtailment and power curtailment is more serious, and it has also stimulated the local economy. consider.
"China's energy utilization structure is undergoing transformation. We will vigorously develop wind power, nuclear power, and solar energy in the future. Therefore, wind power development will not experience a significant slowdown," said Li X, an analyst at Infosys.
However, compared with the large-scale installed capacity, China's newly installed capacity for wind power has been declining for two consecutive years. China Wind Energy Association's “Statistics of China's Wind Power Installation Capacity†published on March 13 showed that China’s newly installed wind power capacity was 12.96 million kilowatts in 2012, a year-on-year decrease of 26.5%. In addition, in 2012, China lost due to wind curtailment and power curtailment. The electricity of about 20 billion kwh, accounting for 1/5 of the total generation of wind power, twice as much as in 2011.
People in the industry are not optimistic about the development of these projects during the "12th Five-Year Plan" period. Li X said that there are still more than two years before the end of the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan†period. It is impossible for the state and the enterprises to come up with so many fund development projects in the short term. Moreover, it is more difficult to borrow from banks, so whether these projects can There are also great risks in starting construction during the 12th Five-Year Plan period.
Next "Circle of the Sea"?
Wind power "money" view is good, investors are enthusiastic. However, due to the relatively limited number of hills that are suitable for installing wind turbines, many investors have turned their eyes to the sea. Offshore wind energy reserves are much larger than onshore wind energy. Compared with onshore wind farms, offshore wind farms have less impact on the environment.
Silent offshore wind power industry has recently received good news. A battle for offshore wind power is also being staged in coastal provinces and cities. According to reports, Fujian Datang International Wind Power Development Co., Ltd. has completed the planning and preparation of the Liuyi Offshore Wind Farm, which has been submitted to the National Energy Administration for approval. The offshore wind power project is planned to invest 6 billion yuan.
Fujian Datang “Circling the Sea†is just the beginning of offshore wind power. Lin Yifeng, chief engineer of offshore wind farm design project of Shanghai Institute of Survey Design and Design, has stated at the Norwegian offshore wind power special forum in China that it is expected that by the end of March this year, the Shanghai Donghai Bridge Offshore Wind Farm Phase II project will be approved by the National Energy Administration.
At the same time, coastal cities such as Shanghai, Jiangsu, Hebei, and Zhejiang have also taken actions and their wind power planning has been completed. Dalian, Fujian, Guangxi, Hainan and other provinces are improving and formulating, initially determining the development potential of 43 million kilowatts of offshore wind energy resources. At present, there are 38 projects and 16.5 million kilowatts of projects in the preparatory work.
The “Twelfth Five-Year Plan†for wind power development mentioned that by 2015, China’s installed offshore wind power capacity will reach 5 million kilowatts. By the end of 2020, China’s installed offshore wind power capacity will reach 30 million kilowatts.
It is worth mentioning here that, as early as 2010, the National Energy Administration organized four offshore wind power concession projects in Jiangsu, totaling 1 million kilowatts. At the National Energy Work Conference held earlier this year, China once again made clear that the installed capacity of new wind power in 2013 will reach 18 million kilowatts.
"Xiao He's sharp-edged swordsmanship has long since stood tall," and enterprises such as Fujian Datang and other leading enterprises have already made preparations for "circling the sea." In front of the government’s grand blueprint of offshore wind power, the tempting and enticing cake of offshore wind power immediately ignited the enthusiasm of coastal cities for investing in offshore wind power. Compared with the rising emotions of coastal cities in investing offshore wind power, there has been no substantial progress in the commercial operation of offshore wind power.
Zhang Chengyu, a senior researcher at China State Creative Industrial Research Center, said that the offshore power generation industry represented by Jiangsu Province is beginning to take shape, but there are still many bottlenecks in the technical link. The incomplete details of policies and regulations, and the unstable production capacity of wind turbines have also constrained the development of offshore wind power.
It is understood that the development of offshore wind power industry has broad prospects, which is beyond any doubt. However, the cost of offshore wind power is not only higher than the cost of land-based wind power, but also has a large risk factor at sea. At the same time, the R&D and manufacturing capabilities of wind power core technologies and core equipment are currently at a weak link, and routine maintenance and service systems are not perfect and other factors are currently the major challenges encountered in offshore wind power development.
Wind power encounters "retired" problems
While the development prospects of wind power are immersed in the mystery, the “retired†problem of wind turbines has become a concern.
China's first-generation wind turbines were built in the early 1990s. After the 20-year warranty expired, they were nearly decommissioned. However, there was no industry research, no institutional arrangements, and no response. However, in the new energy leap, this is not worrying people, but it is a rainy day.
Whether it is a wind farm or a solar power station, the service life of wind turbines and solar modules is 20 years. China's new energy industry entered a period of great development around 2005. By 2012, wind power capacity will reach 60 million kilowatts and solar power will reach 3 million kilowatts. At present, the vast majority of wind farms and solar power plants have operated for less than 10 years.
Almost no one has considered the matter 20 years later. This is a realistic portrayal of China's current wind power and solar energy industry. "It's still 20 years ago. Let's talk about it again." If you discuss this issue with new energy companies, they will probably say the same thing.
But nowadays, in Daban City, Xinjiang, 36 shabby and mottled wind turbines slowly rotate. They were built in 1991 and imported from Denmark and the Netherlands. They are operated by Guodian Longyuan Group, and they took on the task of testing wind power in China. . At the time, the power of these wind turbines was only 300 kilowatts, which is less than 1/5 of the mainstream 1.5 megawatts of 1 megawatt equals to 1000 kilowatts of power generating units. Four of the 450 kilowatts of the subsequent introduction of the 450 kilowatts units formed a total installed capacity of about 10,000 kilowatts in Xinjiang. The first phase of wind power project in Luancheng also opened the prelude to wind power generation in China. According to statistics, in 1995, the installed capacity of wind power in China was 40,000 kilowatts. According to the calculation of wind turbine life span of 20 years, in less than three years in the future, this 40-kilowatt wind turbine unit will gradually face the issue of where to go after its life expectancy.
Today, 36 shabby and mottled wind turbines are about to take full life. Once 20 years have passed, the frequency of major accidents such as falling, catching fire, and breaking will rise in a straight line. Workers will try to rescue the old crew as much as possible, but they do not People can guarantee how long the old units that have been rescued two or three times can work.
For operators of wind farms, this early wind farm has the best wind resources. The favorable terrain of “three mountains and two basins†is now also a scarce resource. If the wind farm is abandoned, it will undoubtedly mean the waste of resources. This is what Meng Xianzhi strongly opposes. Guodian Longyuan Group believes that operators should be allowed to continue signing contracts.
For the owners, replacing old fans with new ones is a cost-effective alternative. The five 300-kilowatt old units now only need one 1.5-megawatt new unit, which can not only increase power generation and income by nearly 40%, but also save maintenance costs. The space saved by the five wind turbines can be increased. Three or four new units are installed.
However, when they put into action the “generational and small†program, they discovered that it was extremely difficult for China to run for the fate of the earliest wind farms. The biggest problem is that this is a brand-new problem. It involves a small installed capacity of wind power, all departments do not know how to deal with it, and there is no energy to deal with this "non-main contradiction."
“Government departments communicate one by one, and their voice is very small, so it is very difficult to explore.†An insider of Longyuan Electric revealed that the procedures involved are very tedious. The Xinjiang Development and Reform Commission needs to re-argument, establish projects, and record. The SERC needs to re-issuance of business licenses; the grid company needs to recalculate the electricity billing, and it also involves the National Energy Administration.
“The industry’s first problem happened to be met by us. We also hope to explore a road and demonstrate more and more decommissioning projects in the future.†Longyuan’s insider said, but there is still no good solution. .
The price of electricity is not determined
The main crux of the upgrading of wind turbines is the shortage of funds, and the main source of economic support for wind power operations is electricity prices. The electricity price is not determined and funds are difficult to raise.
The problem is that at the time, the electricity price and the current electricity price were different, and the subsidy method was also different. After the upgrading of wind turbines, the increase in power generation means that the subsidies increase, and how much additional power generation should be subsidized? The funds are from the National Renewable Energy Fund or from Xinjiang's local power companies. There is no answer.
On January 26, 2013, Liang Zhipeng, deputy director of the New Energy and Renewable Energy Division of the National Energy Administration, revealed at the “New Year's Tea Party for Wind Energy†that the National Energy Administration has begun to pay attention to the large, small, and old-for-new policies for wind turbines.
Gao Hu, a researcher at the Energy Research Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission, said that as a policy researcher, there has been no contact with the wind power industry in the 1990s. Most of China’s early wind farms were foreign aid construction, and the electricity prices were all discussed one by one. These historical issues are Combing, it takes time to study.
Many experts in the wind power industry expressed their interest in this issue but did not study it. Qin Haiyan, secretary-general of the China Wind Energy Association, said that according to the calculation of wind power installed capacity of 60 million kilowatts today, China's wind power capacity before 2005 was only 1.26 million kilowatts, which is only 2% of the current installed capacity. This is not the main contradiction of current wind power in China. However, as policy makers, they should be forward-looking. After all, the problem of decommissioning old units will become very common by 2020.
In Guodian Longyuan Company, there are actually different opinions on whether or not to upgrade. An executive from the Longyuan Group headquarters stated that from the perspective of the head office, if the same manpower and material resources are spent, the head office would rather apply for new projects instead of spending energy on old projects. At least new projects can bring total installed capacity to the company. The increase in capacity belongs to Kaituo. Moreover, unlike coal-fired units, the National Energy Administration does not have a requirement that old projects that have expired in service must be retired.
The contradiction between energy and the environment has stimulated the transformation of China's energy use structure. Wind power as a clean energy is bound to show great achievements. However, how wind power escapes the chaotic development model to open the fog and see the sun also need deep reflection from all walks of life.
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