China floor market status and trend forecast

Since 2013, in the face of the country's strong regulation of the real estate industry, the implementation of the new version of the eight countries and provinces, prefectures, and cities introduced, the trading volume of commercial real estate and the property market in each province, prefecture, and city, especially first-tier cities, fell sharply. The market is facing an extremely severe situation, entering a cold period that is even warmer than winter, and this period will greatly challenge the operation and management capabilities of all floor companies. For floor companies, this will obviously be a risk greater than an opportunity. During the period, the following Xiaobian will give a brief explanation of the floor market in 2013 with five points:

As we all know, the sales of floor companies are composed of three parts: one is the newly-installed users brought about by the sale of new and existing stocks, the second is the re-decoration of second-time and above (including second-hand residential sales), and the third is a large batch. Procurement project decoration users (new). The proportion of the above three parts is basically 6:2:2, which means that users of newly installed floors account for most of the overall sales of floorboards; at the same time, the target customers of most floor companies are also new users.

In the current environment, the capacity of the floor market depends on the capacity of the building decoration materials market. The capacity of the building decoration materials market depends on the capacity of the decoration market. The capacity of the decoration market depends on the number of developments in the real estate market. Development depends on the supply and development of local real estate. The development of the real estate market is entirely funded under the current environment with Chinese characteristics. The source of funding depends on the orientation of China’s financial policies. Ultimately, China’s financial policy is entirely determined by the government. Controlled.

At present, with the new economic development model as the guideline, lowering the absolute value of CPI as the core and reducing the excessively large proportion of the real estate industry in GDP has become the consensus of the government. The most direct policy is to reduce liquidity. The increase in bank deposit reserve ratio and interest rate increase from the end of 2012 to this year are the most direct representations, so as to achieve the goal of reducing the blind development of real estate companies and maintaining reasonable housing prices; The affordable housing projects and low-rent housing projects for the people's livelihood project, but for the floor companies, in addition to the slight increase in the sales of laminated wood floors with low profit, the impact on the overall situation is basically negligible, and the resulting high and medium The sales of positioning products will be greatly impacted. Especially in the first half of this year, the company's life will be very difficult.

The floor market capacity of the first and second-tier markets centered on Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, and Hangzhou will decline rapidly; however, on the other hand, the recent provincial, municipal, and city reports reported through open channels report the central government's real estate control targets. From a shorter period of time, some second-tier cities and most third- and fourth-tier cities still cannot get rid of the old land fiscal revenue policies. Therefore, some second-tier cities and most third- and fourth-tier cities in the floor market The fluctuation of capacity will be smaller. However, it should be noted that although the volatility is small, the main tone will still be a drop rather than an increase. Overall, the market capacity will be sharply reduced.

In 2012, it is believed that all floor companies are still a year of harvest. According to statistics, in 2012, the sales volume of wood flooring in China reached 400 million M2. At the same time, there are more than 5,000 flooring manufacturers, but among them there are only brands. About 1,000 to 2,000 companies, accounting for only about 25% of the total number of companies, under the current situation of a sharp contraction in the market, the overall supply and demand relationship in the market is still oversupply; and from the perspective of market share, the first line and the second line is about to enter the first line. The market share of the brand is still rising (note that this does not refer to absolute sales), while the market share of second- and third-tier brands and below is constantly declining, competition among brands is constantly heating up, and there is a first floor distributor. Juggling: We do not sell floorboards. Instead, we sell electricity, sell sanitation, and bedding. We erode not the market share of peers, but the market share of home appliances, health care, bedding, etc.

If you fail to enter the market, there will be a tendency to monopolize the brands in the industry. Moreover, hot money and related industries represented by decoration companies and real estate companies will continue to enter the flooring industry due to the huge overall capacity of the flooring market and low entry barriers. Some enterprises like real estate companies and decoration industries have opened their own floor professional factories in recent years. In short, the number of companies in the industry is constantly expanding. As a result, the reshuffle of the flooring industry that began in 2005 will continue and will intensify.