"Photovoltaic powers" blueprint is emerging

Abstract Since the "double-reverse" of photovoltaics in the United States in early November 2011, in the 22 months, the photovoltaic industry has experienced two double-reverses between the United States and the European Union and the rapid expansion of the domestic domestic market. The implementation of the China-EU PV price commitment has made the main uncertainties affecting the prospects of China's PV industry...
Since the US PV "double opposition" in early November 2011, in the 22 months, the photovoltaic industry has experienced two double-reverses between the United States and the European Union and the rapid expansion of the domestic domestic market. The implementation of the China-EU PV price commitment has basically eliminated the major uncertainties affecting the prospects of China's PV industry. Under the far-reaching influence of these factors, the road map for the development of China's photovoltaic industry in the next few years has gradually become clear.

The last boots landed

Since the beginning of November 2011, there have been three major events in the market of China's photovoltaic industry, namely the “double opposition” between the United States and the European Union and the large-scale launch of the domestic market.

“The three major markets of the United States, the European Union and China are about 70% of the global market.” Wang Bohua, secretary-general of the China Photovoltaic Industry Alliance, said, “The implementation of the China-European PV price commitment is the last one in China’s PV industry market environment. At this point, there is no major uncertainty in the PV industry in China."

Wang Shijiang, the secretariat of China Photovoltaic Industry Alliance, told reporters: "The current situation is that the United States imposes double anti-punitive taxes on China's battery chips. Therefore, after the use of third-party battery chips, China's PV modules are still exported to the US; EU market prices Under the promise, China's PV modules will pursue more high-performance and excellent after-sales service; the domestic domestic market will make up for the losses of the two major markets in Europe and America through large-scale expansion."

"The combined effects of these three factors have made the photovoltaic module core device part of the pressure on the battery, the US market has been forced to let people, the EU market to test the photoelectric conversion rate and service life and other technical performance, the domestic domestic market policy Guided in the pursuit of efficient battery tablets." Wang Shijiang said.

"Strong body slimming" transformation road

Wang Bohua said that recognizing the impact of the "price commitment" negotiations on the entire photovoltaic industry must first make a clear judgment on the domestic photovoltaic industry: First, China can become a "photovoltaic first manufacturing power", to a large extent labor The triple advantages of cost, economies of scale and local technology lead are superimposed. Second, the extensive expansion model of China's PV industry that has grown exponentially in the past few years is unsustainable.

"The photovoltaic dispute between China and the United States and the European Union is the result of a malignant price war caused by the extensive expansion of domestic enterprises. Looking at the overall pattern of the entire industry, the two major overseas markets of the United States and the European Union cannot shake the foundation of China as a photovoltaic industry power. But it also shows that accelerating 'transformation and upgrading' is imminent." Wang Bohua said.

According to Xiao Xiaotong, the chairman of Suzhou Artes Company, after the preliminary levy of 11.8% of the preliminary anti-dumping duties, the price of the EU rose to about 52 Euro cents per watt. “In fact, 52 Euro cents per watt has made PV modules in China and South Korea basically at the same level. 56-57 Euro cents per watt means that the 'price killer' of Chinese PV products has been abolished and placed in front of the Chinese PV industry. Only the 'strong body slimming' road."

“Currently, China's PV industry needs to calm down and take the initiative to upgrade from 'low-cost type' to 'quality-efficient'. The China-Europe price commitment has created a space for transformation and upgrading of China's PV industry, and it has also created a huge downward pressure. "Xiao Xiaotong said.

Avoiding the phenomenon of "bad money driving good money"

Wang Bohua said, "In the past few years, China's photovoltaic industry's 'small scattered' phenomenon has been prominent. SMEs who disregard after-sales service and product quality have cost advantages. Instead, they initiated price wars and put leading enterprises into trouble."

"Replacing the high anti-dumping duties with price promises effectively avoids the 'bad money driving good money', which is the positive energy to promote the Chinese PV industry to accelerate the reshuffle process." Xiao Xiaoyu said, "After the price has a bottom line, big companies are no longer being SMEs take the lead. In this case, leading companies with independent brands, R&D strength and sales channels will have a significant competitive advantage in the EU market."

Wang Bohua introduced that the No. 24 document of the “Several Opinions of the State Council on Promoting the Healthy Development of the Photovoltaic Industry” has clearly set the threshold for entry of photovoltaic cells, such as photoelectric conversion rate and polysilicon comprehensive energy consumption, indicating that relevant departments are accelerating Weak", actively evading the phenomenon of "bad money drives good money".

PV quotas surfaced

According to the information provided by PV companies, the “Measures for the Implementation of the Price Commitment of Exported Photovoltaic Cell Products to the European Union” has clearly defined the allocation method and standard of “quota”, that is, the 60% share of the annual export volume is in accordance with the export of photovoltaic modules to the EU. The share of the export of photovoltaic modules in Europe is allocated; 30% of the annual export volume is allocated as an incentive and key support share to participating industry defense companies; 10% of the annual export volume is prioritized for supporting smaller export enterprises and supporting There are brand, high-tech, and financially sound PV battery exports.

In terms of price, the minimum selling price of 56 Euro cents per watt has also been basically determined. Although it only adds about 4 euro cents per watt, it is a big burden for building a total investment in power plants. “According to this calculation, the investment of a 100 MW PV power plant will increase to 4 million Euros,” said Liang Tian, ​​Director of Public Relations at Yingli.

It is worth noting that the prices and quotas in the current price commitment scheme are not fixed. According to the promised content, the price will refer to the average price of Bloomberg last quarter, and when the benchmark price fluctuates by more than 5%, the minimum price will be re-adjusted. The quota is also based on the consumption of the previous year. If the difference exceeds 10%, it will be re-adjusted.

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