Central European PV solutions have been submitted to EU member states

After six weeks of negotiations, China and the EU reached a price commitment agreement on photovoltaic trade friction, and the unprecedented Sino-European trade war is expected to cool down.

On July 27th, the European Commission (European Commission) Trade Commissioner De Gucht announced that after negotiations, China and the EU have reached a "friendly" solution for the PV trade dispute, which will be submitted to the European Commission for approval in the near future. On the same day, De Gucht did not mention the details of the solution aimed at quelling the biggest trade dispute between China and Europe so far, and the plan still needs to be approved by the European Commission. Officials of the European Commission said that they hope that the member states will approve the plan within 10 days, and the relevant details will be announced at that time.

It is widely believed that China will avoid the high anti-dumping duties originally planned by the EU. Some people in the photovoltaic industry have further said that the "double-reverse" process of losing wine and imported cars to Europe may be terminated.

In this regard, a person close to the Ministry of Commerce made a cautious statement yesterday: "The outside world will see it this way, but the key is to see the direction of the final official document of the China-EU PV negotiations."

The European photovoltaic product manufacturing industry lobby group - "European Support for Solar Energy" has expressed opposition to the solution reached by China and Europe, claiming to appeal to the European Court of Justice in Luxembourg.

"Final Protocol Final Text

Submitted to EU member states"

On June 4 this year, the European Commission announced that the EU will impose a temporary anti-dumping duty of 11.8% on photovoltaic products produced in China from June 6. If the EU and China fail to reach a compromise plan by August 6, anti-dumping will be implemented. The tax rate will rise to 47.6%. Only one day later, the Chinese Ministry of Commerce issued a statement deciding to initiate an anti-dumping and countervailing ("double-reverse") investigation procedure for EU wines. Since then, there have been reports that China may also be "double-reverse" on imported cars from the European Union.

At that time, there was widespread concern that the Sino-European trade war had already taken place. Although the amount of wine is not large, it is an important industry for the EU and has political significance. The EU countries that export wine to China mainly include France, Spain and Italy. These countries voted in favor of China's PV anti-dumping preliminary ruling. Other than 10 EU countries such as Germany and the United Kingdom do not agree to impose anti-dumping duties on Chinese PV products.

After China and the EU reached an agreement on PV price commitments, concerns about the Sino-European trade war began to cool down.

The aforementioned person close to the Ministry of Commerce revealed that the final text of the China-EU PV Negotiation Agreement has been formally submitted to the EU member states. If the plan is approved by the European Commission, the relevant details will be announced.

Regarding the wines exported to China by the European Union, Liu Jin, Secretary General of the China Alcohol Distribution Association and Wu Jianhua, Secretary General of the Shanghai Brewing Industry Association, told the Morning Post reporter that there will be no further progress.

"Photovoltaic negotiations have reached an agreement, this matter (wine 'double anti-') will only be used as an investigation, and there should be no results." Wu Jianhua said.

"0.56 euro / watt commitment price

Increase the difficulty of export next year"

One of the variables at the moment is that some PV manufacturers in the EU are not satisfied with this agreement. They believe that the lowest price of the agreement still constitutes dumping and accuses the European Commission of failing to protect European industries and undermine EU law.

Milan’s head of the European Union’s Solar Energy Organization, Milan Nikik, said in a statement on the 27th: “Even the biggest trade conflict in the EU so far needs to be resolved in accordance with applicable laws.” The group previously promoted the European Commission. , launched an investigation on photovoltaic products originating in China.

However, some PV industry insiders analyzed the Morning Post reporters, and the EU will not continue to revise the agreement because "the Chinese PV companies have no so-called dumping behavior." At the beginning of the day, Ghuhter asked for a price, and finally made a big concession. It seems to be beneficial to China. In fact, the EU is still cheap.

The Morning Post reporter learned from the company the day before yesterday that the price commitment reached by China and the EU was 0.56 Euro/W. According to the photovoltaic trading platform pvXchange, this price is close to the spot price of China's photovoltaic panels in the European market in July. The data of iSuppli shows that the price of components in China's first-tier manufacturers in Europe in May was 0.52 euros/watt, and 0.56 euros/watt equivalent to an increase of 8%.

Wang Haisheng, chief analyst of Minsheng Securities New Energy, analyzed that the reserve price of 0.56 euro/watt is basically the same as the price of Chinese components in the Japanese market. Compared with the competitors of Japan, South Korea and the United States, there is still a competitive advantage. "Of course, this price basically abolishes the possibility of a large power station in Europe, and the negative impact on the terminal market will still be there. It is estimated that the European market is relatively light in the second half of the year, mainly based on roof projects."

Lu Jinbiao, deputy general manager of Jiangsu Zhongneng Silicon Industry Technology Development Co., Ltd., which is owned by GCL-Poly, said, “At least in the second half of the year, the price commitment will not have much impact on mainland PV companies. Now it can compete with mainland PV module companies. There are only companies in Taiwan. However, the capacity of components in Taiwan is limited, so there will be a proportion of the proportion."

Lu Jinbiao said that the market next year is not necessarily the case. “We estimate that the price of components in the EU region will continue to decline in 2013. Because the Taiwan region is close to the mainland, it is easy to get support from the industry chain. Taiwanese companies are good at battery segments, but then the components of glass and aluminum are matched. Products are easy to get, and when they expand their production, the cost will not be very high. It is easy to expand the capacity of the components, and 3 months is enough. Then, in 2014, under the existing price commitment, It is much more difficult for mainland PV companies to re-export to Europe."

Polysilicon double counter

Plugging "processing trade"

Another variable is the issue of quota allocation faced by Chinese PV companies.

Reuters quoted a diplomatic source in the European Union on July 27 as saying that according to the agreement, if based on last year's level, China will be allowed to supply about half of the European PV panel demand. The source said that the EU's consumption in 2012 is about 15 billion watts. According to the agreement, China will provide 7 billion watts without paying customs duties.

Regarding the practice of allocating funds to enterprises, Wang Haisheng said, "According to economic theory, there is bound to be rent-seeking and black market." Some people in the photovoltaic industry even joked that it would be a hot business to resell PV module quotas exported to Europe.

How to divide the quota now is the most concerned topic for enterprises. Some people in the photovoltaic industry told the Morning Post that the biggest possibility is that the big manufacturers get most of the quotas, and the small businesses get a share of the top, and the next days will be very difficult.

However, some people close to the Ministry of Commerce said that in addition to opening up the domestic market, the Chinese government has measures in the international market to support the domestic photovoltaic manufacturing industry. "Now, when the Chinese government is doing foreign aid projects in Asia, Africa and Latin America, it will also bring in photovoltaics, such as in the local non-electric areas, arrange photovoltaic projects, and let the leading domestic enterprises participate. It is to gradually ease the crisis."

It is worth mentioning that on July 18, the Ministry of Commerce also made a preliminary ruling on the US-South Korea polysilicon anti-dumping case, but the Korean polysilicon factory OCI has a tax rate of only 2.4%.

Some people close to the Ministry of Commerce said that this price is definitely too low. South Korea failed to block, and the protection effect on the entire domestic polysilicon industry is much worse. In fact, the cost of South Korea is much higher than that of the United States, and the dumping margin is also higher than that of the United States. South Korea's polysilicon industry has a history similar to that of China. The cost of Korean enterprises is higher than that of China. One is expensive in construction costs, and the operating costs are higher. "This department is very clear. At present, the ruling is relatively low, because according to the procedure, the preliminary ruling is based on the data reported by the other party. It depends on whether the Korean side is honest. Next, it is on-site verification and collecting information. ”

The above-mentioned person disclosed that for the OCI tax rate issue, the Ministry of Commerce is now accepting comments from all parties. After receiving it, it will arrange on-site inspection.

Need to fill in the loopholes, including polysilicon trade processing. The person close to the Ministry of Commerce said that “the proportion of polysilicon processing trade rose to 65% in April. At present, the processing trade is not subject to (anti-dumping) taxes. The next step is to plug this loophole.”

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