For solar photovoltaic power generation equipment manufacturers that have experienced the test of winter, it seems that they still do not smell the spring. The first is that the banking system issued a loan warning for this area. Then some local governments with high enthusiasm have begun to doubt the construction of photovoltaic projects, and their pace has slowed down and even stopped. If last year's pressure on the photovoltaic equipment manufacturing industry is only from Europe and the United States, such as anti-dumping in the United States and slowdown in the construction of solar power projects in European countries, then it is currently facing double pressure at home and abroad. The “removal†of the key moments of domestic financial institutions is even more terrible, which is even fatal for the healthy development of an emerging industry such as solar energy. So, after the high-speed growth of the solar photovoltaic manufacturing industry in the past few years, is it really exhausted? Or is it that the solar photovoltaic industry that has not really grown up is really premature and has become a sunset industry? The spring of optoelectronics is far from coming. Energy is one of the core issues that plague humanity's future development. This has become the consensus of the whole world. Huang Yongda, party secretary of Huaneng Group, said that for China, a developing country that is in the process of industrialization, the future energy contradiction will become more prominent. Especially considering China's environmental capacity, it is more difficult to solve the energy bottleneck. Therefore, the development of clean new energy will become a key issue to be solved in China's energy sector in the next decade. Indeed, because China is in a special period of development, and because of China's coal-based energy structure, to achieve sustainable development, the search for clean energy has become an essential choice. In the current clean energy technologies that humans have mastered, the mainstream is nothing more than the three categories of “scenery waterâ€. In the above three areas of clean energy, wind power experienced a high-speed development in the “Eleventh Five-Year Planâ€. The total installed capacity has rapidly increased from more than 2 million kilowatts in the early 11th Five-Year Plan to more than 60 million kilowatts in the current six-year period. It has grown more than 30 times. At present, eight wind power bases in Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang, and Gansu have been formed nationwide, and the installed capacity of each base exceeds 10 million kilowatts. Hydropower, after the construction of the world-class Three Gorges Power Station, major rivers in western China such as Jinsha River, Minjiang River and Dadu River have already deployed hydropower bases of 10 million kilowatts. The total installed capacity of hydropower in China has also exceeded 200 million kilowatts. It accounts for more than 20% of the total installed capacity. Therefore, the future development speed of the two major clean energy fields of “fengshui†is likely to gradually slow down. Then, after the "feng shui", where is the clean energy that can be connected on a large scale? The energy sector has jointly turned its attention to solar photovoltaic. Li Hejun, president of the China New Energy Chamber of Commerce and chairman of the board of directors of the Hanergy Holding Group, said: In a sense, all the known energy of human beings comes from the sun. For example, from the past firewood, to the large-scale use of fossil energy such as oil and coal after modern industrialization, in fact, indirect use of solar energy. It is also because it is indirect use, so it is not efficient and the pollution is serious. If human beings can directly use solar energy, energy problems and even environmental problems that plague human development will be solved. Because the energy of the sun is inexhaustible and clean and efficient. The direct use of solar energy by humans is not long, especially solar photovoltaic power generation, and large-scale application is also a matter of recent years. In China, optoelectronics has not really achieved large-scale application. At present, the total installed capacity of solar photovoltaic power generation in the country is only about one million kilowatts, which is almost negligible in the total installed capacity of nearly 1 billion kilowatts in China. Therefore, for the solar industry, it may only be regarded as a barely start, and the real development peak is far from coming. The current predicament is due to the blindness of its own development and the single market. Why does the emerging solar industry encounter difficulties when it starts? There are two consensuses among industry experts: First, the development of solar energy itself is indeed blind, and second, the market is single. Since European and American countries have vigorously developed optoelectronics after the construction of wind power in the past few years, the demand for crystalline silicon plates is huge. The overseas market of crystalline silicon plates is very optimistic and the profits are also high. At the same time, because the manufacturing technology of crystalline silicon plates is relatively mature, the investment in production lines is not large, so many domestic enterprises have invested in the field of crystalline silicon. For a time, the clothing and glasses were all in this field, and the domestic manufacturers of crystalline silicon plates quickly expanded to hundreds. This phenomenon is quite similar to the heat of wind turbine manufacturing a few years ago. As a result, public opinion exclaimed that China’s crystalline silicon chaos has emerged, and low-level redundant construction will inevitably lead to overcapacity. The difference is that in the past, the main market for “fans and heat†was in China, and at that time, the domestic wind power construction boom had already formed, so the market capacity was huge. This round of "photovoltaic heat" market is overseas, and mainly concentrated in Europe. The installed capacity of European countries cannot be compared with that of the domestic market, so the market capacity is actually limited. Due to the limited market capacity and relatively single market, once the winds and blows occur, the impact on the manufacturing industry will become more apparent. In 2011, there was a problem in the European economy. The investment in optoelectronic construction in European countries fell rapidly. The huge capacity of the domestic crystalline silicon manufacturing industry that had been hanged on a tree quickly became idle, with a backlog of products and a broken capital chain. As a result, some companies that entered later and companies with smaller strengths were unsustainable. Xu Zheng, director of the Institute of Solar Energy, School of Science, Beijing Jiaotong University, believes that from the perspective of the industry in 2011, it is not so much the photovoltaic industry encountered problems, it is better to say that the entire world economy has encountered problems. Because, not only the photovoltaic industry, the footwear industry, the clothing industry, as long as the enterprises dominated by the European and American markets have encountered difficulties, all enterprises have closed down. Therefore, we can't see that some PV manufacturing companies can't do it. We think that the whole industry can't work. This conclusion is one-sided. It is only the phenomenon that the phenomenon is not visible. In addition, some experts believe that the current difficulties in the domestic PV industry are related to our lack of core competitiveness in crystalline silicon manufacturing technology. At present, most domestic crystalline silicon manufacturing companies lack the most core crystalline silicon refining technology. Silicon ingots are almost exclusively imported from the United States, so most companies actually only play a role in processing. Moreover, not only the small enterprises that entered later lacked core technology, but also the leading enterprises in some industries, and they were also subject to the technological monopoly of foreign companies. Therefore, when the downstream market fluctuates, the company's self-adjustment ability is very limited. On the one hand, due to market influence, it has to cut production or even stop production; on the other hand, it has to be subject to the contract of upstream suppliers, or continue to import raw materials, or have to pay huge liquidated damages. No matter which way you choose, you will be under a lot of money. It can be said that the lack of core technology has further aggravated the dilemma of the photovoltaic industry today. The technological advancement of the photovoltaic industry and the revolution of the development concept will surely bring spring , the solar photovoltaic industry, which is in the ascendant to the sunrise industry, how can we get rid of the current predicament? At an internal seminar recently organized by the China New Energy Chamber of Commerce, experts at the conference pointed out the way out: First, China's photovoltaic manufacturing companies must master core technologies and enhance their competitiveness. At the same time, we must explore new ideas for the development of optoelectronics and truly open up the domestic market. Li Hejun said that if an industry wants to have truly strong competitiveness in the world, it must solve the problem of "hollowing" of technology. Without core technology, there is bound to be a huge risk in this industry. Therefore, Hanergy Holding Group is committed to breakthroughs in core technologies from entering the photovoltaic field. In recent years, we have invested billions of dollars in the research and development of solar silicon-based thin film technology. We have mastered the core technology with independent intellectual property rights. The conversion rate of solar thin film batteries has exceeded 10%, and the cost is already lower than that of crystalline silicon. battery. This year, Hanergy's production capacity of thin-film batteries will reach 3,000 megawatts of production capacity, ranking first in the world. Because we have mastered the core technology and developed a new generation of thin film technology, Hanergy has enhanced its ability to resist risks in the face of the crisis of traditional crystalline silicon cells. Speaking of core technology, Dr. Zhao Lei, an associate researcher at the Institute of Battery Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, said that thin film technology is another generation of technology after crystalline silicon. The crystalline silicon can be dried, but the crystalline silicon is not necessarily dry, and the film is not dry. The pollution and energy consumption of the battery is much smaller than that of crystalline silicon. Therefore, from the perspective of demand, the film has an advantage over crystalline silicon. In addition, because it is a new generation of technology, we will be able to surpass the West in this area and break the technical barriers in the West. Of course, the conversion rate of the film is currently only 10%, which is lower than that of crystalline silicon. However, its room for improvement is very large, and the cost realized by crystalline silicon at 17%-18% conversion efficiency can be achieved at 10% level. Therefore, the future development of thin film technology is very large. In addition to technological breakthroughs, experts also believe that the photovoltaic industry must truly seek spring, and must also seek innovation in the development model. In China, if photoelectricity continues to follow the old path of wind power intensive development, it may not work. The marketing director of Hongwei Technology Co., Ltd. and the vice president of the China New Energy Chamber of Commerce said that, like many new technologies, optoelectronics cannot be dominated by the market alone. It is difficult for new energy sources to develop rapidly without the support of the government. So how should the government support it? The rapid development of wind power in China relies on the price mechanism and relies on large-scale development. However, the experience of photovoltaics simply applying wind power may be problematic. First of all, optoelectronics can't work at night until there is no breakthrough in energy storage technology. Therefore, the peaking requirement of photoelectric is high. Secondly, due to the limited size of installed machines, large-scale centralized development of photovoltaics, power transmission is also a problem. Therefore, in the development of optoelectronics, it is necessary to adopt an intensive and distributed approach, and to be able to close the Internet and to easily solve the peaking area, and to build intensively. Other regions should adopt the idea of ​​adapting to local conditions and distributed development. For example, using the roof and using the glass curtain wall to build photoelectric, this can solve the problem of long-distance transportation and peak shaving, and solve the problem of land occupation. Concisely speaking, Germany's "Million Roof Plan" is actually this idea. Through government subsidies, everyone is encouraged to use the roof to generate electricity, which is a good reference for us. Another example is Thailand, they are also this idea, and the subsidy is higher than ours, each watt is 2 yuan, we only 1 piece. Industry experts unanimously believe that if the technical bottleneck is solved and the development ideas are broadened, Optoelectronics will surely usher in the real spring like the wind power construction during the 11th Five-Year Plan period. Li Hejun calculated the account for “Spring of Optoelectronicsâ€: If 10% of the roof construction photovoltaic power generation is used in the current domestic construction, the total installed capacity of photovoltaics will reach 1 billion kilowatts, which is equivalent to the current total installed capacity of power generation in the country. . By then, not only will the photovoltaic industry form a trillion-dollar industry scale, but China's energy and environmental issues will also be completely solved and improved.
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