[China Aluminum Industry Network] 1. Impact of Supply and Demand Relationships between supply and demand directly affect the market pricing of commodities. When the market supply and demand relationship is temporarily balanced, the market price of the commodity will fluctuate within a narrow range; when the supply and demand relationship is out of balance At that time, prices will fluctuate significantly. In the aluminum futures market, investors can focus on an indicator that reflects changes in aluminum supply and demand - inventory. Aluminum stocks are divided into reporting stocks and non-reporting stocks. Reporting stocks are also called “dominant stocksâ€, which is the number of stocks of aluminum that the futures exchange regularly publishes at its designated delivery warehouse. Non-reporting inventory mainly refers to the quantity of aluminum held by producers, traders, and consumers in the global market. Because these stocks are not reported by specialized agencies and released, these stocks are also called “hidden inventoryâ€. .
2. Impact of alumina supply Alumina costs account for approximately 28%-34% of aluminum ingot production costs. Due to the high concentration of the international alumina market, most of the world's alumina (80% to 90%) are sold through long-term contracts, so there is very little alumina available for trading on the spot market. Take China as an example. Before 1997, China's alumina gap was mainly purchased in the international spot market and there was no long-term contract. By 1997, China Nonferrous had signed a 30-year long-term supply contract with Alcoa, 400,000 tons per year, and the price was priced according to a certain percentage of LME's primary aluminum price. In recent years, the continuous expansion of electrolytic aluminum production in China has led to a continuous increase in domestic demand for alumina. At present, about two-thirds of imported alumina needs to be purchased from the spot market. China's large purchase of alumina in the international market has directly contributed to the significant increase in international alumina prices. According to statistics, China imported 5.87 million tons of alumina in 2004, an increase of 4.8% over the same period of last year. The average import price is US$340 (foreign alumina The cash cost of production is less than US$120. It is simple to estimate that only the direct import of alumina in 2004 would cost more foreign alumina suppliers up to several billion RMB. The rising prices of alumina have led to a significant increase in the production costs of electrolytic aluminum production companies, which have led to a substantial decline in economic efficiency. Most companies have fallen into profit or loss.
3. Influence of Electricity Price The electrolytic aluminum industry is also called the “electric tiger†industry. At present, the average power consumption of tons of aluminum in domestic and foreign aluminum plants is controlled at 15,000 kwh/t or less. The experience of aluminum ingot production in Western countries shows that when the electricity cost exceeds 30% of the aluminum production cost, it is considered as dangerous production.
In 2004, the average power consumption per ton of aluminum in China's aluminum plants was 14683kwh/t, which was 347kwh/t lower than that in 2003. This is a year in which the average integrated AC power consumption in the electrolytic aluminum industry in China fell by a large margin. In spite of this, due to China's energy-scarce countries, the price of electricity raised by several times has increased the average price of aluminum enterprises to 0.355 yuan/KWh or more, which is nearly 4 points/KWh higher than in 2003, which means that the aluminum enterprise's production cost of tons of aluminum. An increase of 600 yuan.
Therefore, the power factor not only affects the production of electrolytic aluminum in China, but also affects the domestic and international aluminum market prices.
4. The impact of the economic situation Aluminum has become an important non-ferrous metal species, especially in developed countries or regions where aluminum consumption has been highly correlated with economic development. When the economy of a country or region develops rapidly, aluminum consumption will also increase at the same pace. Similarly, the economic recession will lead to a decline in aluminum consumption in some industries, leading to fluctuations in aluminum prices. In addition, fluctuations in the price of some metals related to aluminum, fluctuations in international oil prices, and changes in industrial policies in various countries will have an impact on aluminum prices.
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