Natural gas power generation will undergo positive changes along with changes in China's energy structure and strict environmental protection standards, among which natural gas distributed generation will achieve an outbreak of growth from scratch.
Tianshi: The construction of natural gas pipelines and LNG receiving stations in China can meet the growing demand of natural gas in China. At the same time, the potential reserves of unconventional natural gas (coalbed methane/shale gas, etc.) in China are huge, and the supply and demand sides will form a healthy resonance. China's lack of natural gas supply.
Geographical position: The long-term supply contract signed by the gas company and the three major oil companies prompts gas companies to find ways to digest natural gas. Natural gas power generation is the most potential demand. Gas producers can earn profits from natural gas sales and profit from power generation at the same time, and their enthusiasm is huge.
Renhe: China's environmental protection standards have become increasingly stringent. The dust/SO2/NOX requirements in the air will converge with those of Europe and the United States. The PM2.5 standard will be incorporated into the urban air monitoring system. Natural gas as a clean energy source will be strongly supported by relevant national policies. It is estimated that the subsidy funds will be lower than the subsidies for denitrification.
Both centralized and distributed natural gas power generation will usher in development opportunities during the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan†period.
During the "12th Five-Year Plan" period, China's natural gas power generation capacity will increase from 28 million KW to 60 million KW. It will enter an intensive construction period from 2012, and an average of 8 million KW installed capacity each year for the next four years, requiring a construction investment of 40 billion yuan. .
According to the planning of the National Development and Reform Commission, 1,000 distributed energy projects will be built during the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan†period, and by 2020, distributed energy systems will be promoted in cities above the national scale, with an installed capacity of 50 million KW and a total of 400 billion in a decade. market.
Gas distributors in some regions are very motivated to invest in the construction of natural gas power plants, and recover costs in 4-5 years. The environmental protection requirements of economically developed regions are high. The power group is also actively investing in natural gas power generation projects in consideration of enclosures; key equipment such as gas turbines are mostly foreign manufacturers. Monopoly, the marginal increase in the future is not high, attention can be engaged in natural gas distributed energy equipment vendors.
The construction cost of 400,000 KW gas-fired power plants is 2 billion yuan (large-scale power plants are 5,000 yuan/kilowatt), 20% is self-owned capital investment is 400 million yuan, and the power plants can be responsible for their own profits and losses without investment after they are completed; 0.3 yuan per cubic meter of pipe transmission costs , Gas distributors can earn $84 million a year and recover the power plant's investment in five years.
The level of China's gas turbine manufacturing is far behind the world. At present, heavy-duty gas turbines and steam turbines are monopolized by GE, Siemens, Mitsubishi and its joint ventures, and there is little potential for growth in the market for centralized power generation equipment; the light/micro gas turbines needed for distributed energy are mainly dependent on Imports, domestic manufacturers have little project experience, and look forward to localization during the "12th Five-Year Plan" period.
Tianshi: The construction of natural gas pipelines and LNG receiving stations in China can meet the growing demand of natural gas in China. At the same time, the potential reserves of unconventional natural gas (coalbed methane/shale gas, etc.) in China are huge, and the supply and demand sides will form a healthy resonance. China's lack of natural gas supply.
Geographical position: The long-term supply contract signed by the gas company and the three major oil companies prompts gas companies to find ways to digest natural gas. Natural gas power generation is the most potential demand. Gas producers can earn profits from natural gas sales and profit from power generation at the same time, and their enthusiasm is huge.
Renhe: China's environmental protection standards have become increasingly stringent. The dust/SO2/NOX requirements in the air will converge with those of Europe and the United States. The PM2.5 standard will be incorporated into the urban air monitoring system. Natural gas as a clean energy source will be strongly supported by relevant national policies. It is estimated that the subsidy funds will be lower than the subsidies for denitrification.
Both centralized and distributed natural gas power generation will usher in development opportunities during the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan†period.
During the "12th Five-Year Plan" period, China's natural gas power generation capacity will increase from 28 million KW to 60 million KW. It will enter an intensive construction period from 2012, and an average of 8 million KW installed capacity each year for the next four years, requiring a construction investment of 40 billion yuan. .
According to the planning of the National Development and Reform Commission, 1,000 distributed energy projects will be built during the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan†period, and by 2020, distributed energy systems will be promoted in cities above the national scale, with an installed capacity of 50 million KW and a total of 400 billion in a decade. market.
Gas distributors in some regions are very motivated to invest in the construction of natural gas power plants, and recover costs in 4-5 years. The environmental protection requirements of economically developed regions are high. The power group is also actively investing in natural gas power generation projects in consideration of enclosures; key equipment such as gas turbines are mostly foreign manufacturers. Monopoly, the marginal increase in the future is not high, attention can be engaged in natural gas distributed energy equipment vendors.
The construction cost of 400,000 KW gas-fired power plants is 2 billion yuan (large-scale power plants are 5,000 yuan/kilowatt), 20% is self-owned capital investment is 400 million yuan, and the power plants can be responsible for their own profits and losses without investment after they are completed; 0.3 yuan per cubic meter of pipe transmission costs , Gas distributors can earn $84 million a year and recover the power plant's investment in five years.
The level of China's gas turbine manufacturing is far behind the world. At present, heavy-duty gas turbines and steam turbines are monopolized by GE, Siemens, Mitsubishi and its joint ventures, and there is little potential for growth in the market for centralized power generation equipment; the light/micro gas turbines needed for distributed energy are mainly dependent on Imports, domestic manufacturers have little project experience, and look forward to localization during the "12th Five-Year Plan" period.
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