Summary of the core tips: In summary, we believe that copper prices still maintain a small cycle of volatile market trend, the short-term copper second support level of 6,600 US dollars, the first support level of 6,800 US dollars, the pressure of 7,000 US dollars; the corresponding copper price range of 4.75-5 Wan; spot copper 4....
Core Tip: On the whole, we believe that copper prices still maintain a small cycle of volatile market trend, short-term copper second support level of 6,600 US dollars, the first support level of 6,800 US dollars, pressure level of 7,000 US dollars; corresponding copper price range of 4.75-5 million Spot copper 4.8-5 million; scrap copper 4.55-4.75 million. First, the electrolytic copper market
This week, the Shanghai copper futures trended down, and the spot copper was also floating above 50,000 for most of the time. Overall, it was better than last week. The specific data of the spot price of the Fubao Copper Research Group this week is as follows:
This week, the market rebounded for nearly a week, but the rebound on Friday is difficult to continue and a new wave of decline has started. Judging from the situation reflected by the East China spot market, the first two days of this week, due to a state-owned enterprise receiving goods in the market, the spot copper supply was tight, which restrained the enthusiasm of the middle movers, and then the spot turned from premium to premium; However, with the recovery of supply, the buyer's enthusiasm is low, but the spot copper is not good enough to bring strong support to the copper price. This week, the downstream factories once again performed flatly, receiving goods on demand, and consistent with the holding traders: generally bearish, comprehensively, this week, the spot market is still dominated by intermediate movers. Delivery is gradually approaching, and it is expected that there will be a large upside for the spot premium next week.
Figure 1: Shanghai-London ratio and import profit and loss
This week, the ratio of Shanghai and Shanghai fell all the way, once fell below 7.3, the import losses are also widening, this week basically lost 800 yuan / ton, given the current price, is not conducive to the influx of imported copper, which may be in addition to traders' funds One of the reasons for the decline in copper premiums outside of tension. Under normal circumstances, LME regulations warehouse shipments must reach 3,000 tons / day, if traders apply for a large amount of metal, they need a long queue waiting time, sometimes one year or even longer, this is also mid-June Since the main reason for the spot copper import premium has been rising, but LME has recently proposed to comprehensively adjust its metal inventory system, reduce the existing long queue and prevent the formation of new teams. If the proposal is passed, the import copper premium will continue to fall. .
This week, the spot price of copper has ended 8 months of continuous water discount. At present, it has already risen slightly. It can not be interpreted as a stimulus for the improvement of copper consumption in the euro zone, but it can affect the price of copper in the Shanghai-London market. Import volume. From the trend point of view, copper prices are weak, China's downstream consumption has not improved, it is expected that the ratio of Shanghai and Shanghai may continue to lie near 7.3 next week.
Second, the recycled copper market
1, electrolytic copper and bright lines
From Monday to Friday, scrap copper prices showed a ladder-like trend. The Foshan 1# bright line fell from 46,050 on Monday to 46,450 on Friday, up 1250 from last week. The price of electrolytic copper is weaker than the bright line, compared with last week. Five rose 500. The price of copper rose the day before, and it was sideways in the middle of the three days. The price of scrap copper has been limited, and market transactions have been cold and clear.
Figure 2: The difference between electrolytic copper and scrap copper
This week, the copper price rebounded and stabilized. It was boosted by the economic data of the Eurozone. The copper price rebounded in the early stage. However, due to the lack of good news, the copper price in the later period showed a steady trend. It is understood that the scrap copper imports have recently tightened supervision, and some scrap copper merchants have stopped quoting and wait and see the market for the time being. The scrap copper dismantling plant is also bleak. With the decrease in the volume of copper and aluminum water tanks, the operating rate of the dismantling field has dropped significantly, and the shutdown has begun to increase. According to the market, the copper and aluminum water tanks have been greatly reduced since the end of June. The supply is very tight. It is difficult for the dismantling plant to find the source of supply. In addition, the current price loss is high, the market is difficult to trade, most of them are closed and the market is upside down. This week, the popularity of the market is very low. The waste market is weak and volatile. If you want to have a big gain, you need to wait for a strong signal. The US non-agricultural data release will be the focus of the market tonight. The data will cause copper price fluctuations regardless of good and bad, but The trend of the copper trend is still weak.
2. Shandong cable company's average operating rate in June is 66.94%
This week, Fubao Copper Research Group conducted a follow-up survey on the production situation of cable companies in Shandong in June. The average operating rate of cable companies in Shandong was 66.94% in June, down 4.39% from the total operating rate of 71.33% in May. The customer's response verified the fact that 41.14% of the companies indicated that the construction started to decline; the flat merchants still accounted for the majority, accounting for 53.79%; the proportion of enterprises with rising operating rates was as low as 5.07%. The reason: First, the current production season is low, the decline in orders is affected by seasonal factors; secondly, copper prices have fallen sharply, and downstream buyers are still bearish. Shandong cable enterprise orders showed a downward trend in June. On the one hand, the copper price dropped so that the merchants lacked confidence in the current copper market. On the other hand, they are now in the third quarter of seasonal consumption, and the new growth of cable companies in July is relatively weak.
Third, the downstream market analysis
This week, Zhejiang Jinlong Hpb58-3 brass rods showed a slight increase in ex-factory prices. On Monday, copper prices rebounded sharply under the boost of the euro zone manufacturing PMI. However, copper prices tend to fluctuate within a narrow range, and manufacturers' copper rod prices are only fine-tuned by 200. Yuan to 36,700 yuan / ton. From the current point of view, copper prices are still facing downside risks, and merchants are very cautious in price adjustment.
Figure 3: Zhejiang Ningbo HPB58-3A lead brass rod price
Since entering the beginning of June, downstream copper companies have started to show signs of a slight decline. At present, it has entered the traditional off-season in July. Demand for terminal appliances (air conditioners, refrigerators, etc.) such as copper pipes and copper rods is expected to decline. As it has entered the summer season, orders are more than the second quarter, and new orders are less in July. The enthusiasm for starting work has cooled down and production capacity has slowed down. At present, the price of copper has rebounded from the low level at the end of June, the shipment of raw material holders has improved slightly, and the shortage of raw materials for copper processing enterprises has eased. However, the price of copper is still relatively low at the beginning of the year. The price of copper in the market is relatively high. It only relies on processing fees to make profits. However, the current copper market is sluggish and processing fees are lower than the same period of last year. Among them, the difference in profit is meager, and some companies are taking low prices. Avoid the risk of stockpiling. However, in general, the orders for large enterprises are still relatively stable, and the risk of capital chain is relatively small. SMEs are more affected by copper prices and funds, and their willingness to cash out is stronger. Stepping into July, if the copper market improves, it will help stimulate the activity of downstream SMEs. On the contrary, if the copper price is still at a low level, it is expected that some businesses will be shut down in July and August.
The overall situation of cable companies is not optimistic. Aside from large enterprises with stable order channels, the operating rate of SMEs is showing signs of decline. According to the investigation by the Fubao Copper Research Group on the Shandong Cable Factory, the average local construction started in June was less than 70%, down about 4% from the previous month. The reduction in production capacity of the SMEs was the main reason for the overall decline. At the same time, the enterprises that had been fully loaded before were due to complete the order target, and the production capacity also declined. At present, there are still many merchants in the cable industry that hold more or less raw materials or finished product inventory. After entering the off-season in the third quarter, the company expects to basically digest its own inventory, and the construction will further decline.
Fourth, futures market analysis and forecast
This week, the price of copper fell back, and it encountered strong resistance at the 7,000-dollar mark. Then it gradually fell and swallowed most of the gains at the beginning of the week, as shown in the following figure:
This week, in the second half of 2013, we first reviewed the reasons for the persistent decline in copper prices in the first half of the year: in the macroscopic form, the risk of the European debt crisis continued, and Cyprus was on the verge of exiting the euro zone, severely curbing the release of capital risk preferences; The Eurozone PMI is operating below the glory line and the unemployment rate has hit record highs. The first half of the year is still in the midst of a recession, and the impact of the debt crisis on the economy is not over. The US economy is slowly growing in uncertainty, and the minutes of the Fed meeting increasingly suggest that the possibility of QE exits is increasing, and the strong rise in the US dollar index has curbed demand for dollar-denominated commodities. China's GDP growth rate is declining, and the transformation will cause the economy to fall into the embarrassing situation of low-speed growth. The data shows that the economy is in danger of entering a contraction zone in the short term. From the demand point of view, since the Spring Festival, some enterprises have chosen to delay construction. The traditional Chinese peak season is characterized by a prosperous season, and the recovery rate of cable and copper enterprises is limited. On the supply side, global copper output growth, copper concentrate The growth rate of capacity growth climbed to 5% year-on-year, and the capacity utilization rate of copper mines reached 83%. The decline in supply and demand led to an oversupply of copper. ICSG data showed that the global refined copper market in the first quarter of 2013 had an oversupply of 222,000 tons, showing a growth trend, compared with a supply shortage of 312,000 tons in the same period in 2012. In addition, the outflow of financing copper stocks inhibits copper prices. At the beginning of the year, China's bonded warehouse copper stocks reached 1 million tons. Up to now, the copper stocks in bonded warehouses are only around 500,000 tons, and nearly 500,000 tons of hidden stocks have been converted into explicit stocks, bringing the fundamental and psychological aspects to the market. Continuous pressure.
We believe that the global economic situation will continue to deteriorate in the second half of the year, the risk of the euro zone will gradually ease, and the impact of the tail crisis on the market will be limited. The certainty of the US economic recovery will increase, but the possibility of a gradual withdrawal from QE will be high, and the US dollar will Maintaining a strong position will put pressure on commodities; China's economy will bottom out in the second half of the year, and the overall situation will remain at a low-speed operation, and demand will be released. In general, the pattern of copper supply and demand has changed to a loose. With the recovery of existing mine production capacity, new capacity expansion, and copper smelting processing fees, the supply of refined copper will continue to be high in the future; however, downstream copper demand is weak, stocks are high, and the market is still facing greater pressure. The surplus supply of refined copper will last for a longer period of time; technically, copper prices have already run in the bear market, showing a situation of easy to fall and hard to rise, and the market will continue to remain weak in the second half of the year.
From a technical point of view, the pressure of 7,000 US dollars is high, and there is a trend of correction on the technical side. The 60-point graph has already deviated from the market. It is expected that the short-term copper price will continue to fall, and the extent is not the non-agricultural employment this Friday night. Data related.
In summary, we believe that copper prices still maintain a small cycle of volatile market trend, the short-term copper second support level of 6,600 US dollars, the first support level of 6,800 US dollars, the pressure of 7,000 US dollars; the corresponding copper price range of 4.75-5 million; Copper 4.8-5 million; scrap copper 4.55-4.75 million.
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