Photovoltaic industry repeats "Davis double-click" PV market east or outbreak

It can be expected that rapid development will remain the theme of the domestic new energy industry in 2018. Governments and companies need to be prepared in advance to be able to perfectly stage the "Dovis double-click" of the expansion of the industry and the company's performance. New Energy: Reenactment of “Davis Double-Click” In 1947, Shelby Davis of the New York State Department of Finance Insurance resigned and took the $500,000 into the investment market. Under his ingenious operation, $50,000 has been multiplied several times in the next 40 years, eventually reaching more than $800 million. Later, in the Davis Dynasty, which described his life, this precise investment idea was summed up as "Davis double-click": that is, don't place an order when investing, but look at two opportunities and then take another shot: It is a bull market, and the second is the turning point of the company's performance. Today, “Davis double-click” is not only used in the secondary market, but also to describe areas where industry scale expansion and company performance are good, such as 2017 PV. From the perspective of the industry, in 2017, China's photovoltaic power generation installed capacity reached 53 million kilowatts a year, more than half of the global new scale, and completed the “13th Five-Year Plan” installation target ahead of schedule; from the performance point of view, the annual profit of some leading enterprises Great rise, some companies may exceed 100%. At the 2018 National Energy Work Conference held at the end of 2017, the national energy authority emphasized that it is necessary to fully promote the high-quality development of energy and promote quality change to become one of the “three major changes” in energy in 2018. There is a view that the current rapid development of renewable energy industry represented by photovoltaic power generation and good corporate performance is a manifestation of high-quality development. However, from the perspective of macro and long-term development of the entire industry, it can be said that photovoltaic power generation in 2017 has achieved a high volume. Development, but there is still a long way to go from high quality development. In 2018, new energy development still faces multiple challenges. The new mechanism needs to be established. The effective implementation of existing policies needs to be further promoted. The reduction of wind power and photovoltaic power prices will affect all aspects of the industry. Both the subsidies and the high quality are both contradictory, but it is expected that rapid development will remain the theme of the new domestic energy industry in 2018. Governments and companies need to be prepared in advance to be able to perform the "Davis double-click" perfectly. The market continues to be hot, and the east-central or outbreak wind-power price and subsidy retreat are the policies that the state has continued to implement in recent years. On the surface, if the subsidy level of electricity prices declines, there will be a decline in industry capacity and a decline in profits and a shrinking market size, but For the new energy industry in the rapid development stage, its impact depends to a greater extent on the price relationship between cost and electricity price subsidies. Considering various factors, although the new energy tariff subsidies continue to decline in 2018, the market may have a small burst. The above expectations are not due to the fact that the electricity price subsidy policy has not played a role in regulating and balancing the market, but is related to the change in cost and the degree of adjustment of the declining trend. For photovoltaic power generation, the subsidy declining range, especially the extent of the degraded slope of distributed photovoltaics, lags behind the cost. The distributed photovoltaic power subsidy adjustment plan determined in December 2017 is generally considered to be “quite moderate” in the industry, and the decline is both behind the cost reduction and below market expectations. If various policies can be put in place, PV companies can still get very good economic returns. On the other hand, the subsidy for electricity has entered the subsidy retreat track, and the subsidy has not been fully reduced, so the continued growth of the distributed market should be a high probability event. For wind power, the intensity and speed of subsidies to retreat are not enough compared with the goal of achieving competition with coal-fired power generation in the same period in 2020. Compared with the photovoltaics that have been staged “Davis double-click”, the development of the wind power market in 2017 has disappointed the industry. In the same year, more than 15 million kilowatts of new installed capacity was realized. This data is added every year from 2011 to 2014. The installed capacity is quite the same, but it is difficult to compare with the new installed capacity of more than 33 million kilowatts in 2015 and the new installed capacity of nearly 20 million kilowatts in 2016 due to the adjustment of electricity price level. The situation may be reversed in 2018, but there are certain uncertainties. On the one hand, the wind power market and decentralized wind power in the central and eastern regions will bring new development opportunities. On the other hand, the requirements for ecological environment in some areas may become stricter. Harsh, if there is a one-size-fits-all approach, it will have an impact on the new wind power market. From the perspective of the wind power industry itself, technological progress has brought about an increase in the utilization hours of wind power, and the cost of electricity has gradually decreased. Under the circumstance of the gradual decline in the price of electricity, the return on investment of enterprises will become more obvious. In general, the wind power industry is expected to recover in 2018. Whether it is photovoltaic or wind power, compared to the scale of 2017, a large-scale installation explosion will not occur in 2018, and it is more likely that there will be rapid growth in one or several regions, especially in the central and eastern regions. Fast, the wind power construction area transfer will continue to deepen in 2018. The decentralized wind power and offshore wind power in the central and eastern regions have completed the preliminary preparation and entered the actual installation stage; in the photovoltaic field, except for several provinces in the east, it has maintained steady growth in 2018, Hubei, Provinces in the central regions such as Jiangxi may experience a rapid increase in installed capacity. Raising the standard and turning the fire into fire After the rapid development of the photovoltaic power generation market in 2017, the regulatory authorities in some eastern provinces have already begun operations. At the beginning of the new year in 2018, the official website of the Anhui Zhangzhou Development and Reform Commission issued a message: From January 1, 2018, the city's commercial photovoltaic power generation project was completely suspended, and the commercial grid power generation project was suspended. This is not the first time that Anhui has suspended the registration of photovoltaic power generation. Since November 2016, Hefei City issued the “Notice on Suspending the Recording of Construction Projects for Centralized Photovoltaic Ground Power Stations”, and Anhui has gradually suspended the registration of ground power stations. According to media statistics, before May 2017, Anhui Province has suspended the filing of ground photovoltaic power plant projects. As one of the fastest growing provinces in the eastern region, the cumulative installed capacity of distributed photovoltaics in Anhui reached 3.23 million kilowatts by the end of 2017, accounting for 11% of the national total. This trend will continue in 2018. However, while the installed capacity is growing rapidly, the regulatory standards have increased. From "firefighters" to "firefighters", the change in Anhui is just a microcosm. In 2018, the trend of supervision should be more calm, that is, no longer deal with various emergencies, but plan ahead, formulate rules, and guide the market subjects to the most suitable position through rules, and predict risks early, let fast The market for development continues to be in good shape. To achieve this goal, the regulatory authorities may raise the two criteria: First, consumption is the primary consideration. According to the filing documents issued by Anhui since 2016, it can be seen that the reasons for the “suspension of filing” are mostly related to consumption. For example, in the industrial and commercial suspension record documents at the beginning of 2018, there are requirements for “strengthening the construction of power grid reconstruction projects and improving the carrying capacity of power infrastructure”. New energy consumption such as scenery has been greatly eased in 2017. According to the National Energy Administration, the national abandonment rate and light rejection rate in 2017 decreased by 5.2 and 4.3 percentage points respectively. In 2018, in addition to the need to address existing consumption issues, higher regulatory targets will also fall in areas where significant consumption problems have not yet emerged. Distributed photovoltaic, decentralized wind power and other close to the power load area, generally there will be no consumption problems, but after experiencing the rapid increase of distributed photovoltaics in 2017, in some cities or within a certain area, photovoltaic power generation and electricity in The proportion of the local power grid has reached a certain proportion. The future development and consumption space issues must be considered. The introduction of relevant standards, precautions, and prevention of possible local consumption problems should be one of the important tasks that need to be initiated in 2018. Followed by technical standards. One of the criteria for measuring high quality development in the industry is efficiency. The government's formulation of rules and the realization of technological advancement in the industry through the hands of the market has proven to be effective: wind power efficiency needs to increase initial investment but can achieve a full life cycle cost reduction; in the photovoltaic field, through the implementation of photovoltaic leading base, the original expected 2020 The battery and system conversion efficiency indicators achieved around the year are expected to be realized in 2018. In 2018, the standard system will be further improved to promote efficiency, market segmentation, and appropriate application space for various technologies. Grasping the technology, letting the explosive growth of good money drive out of the enterprise is both love and fear. The love is cut by the market, and Davis double-clicks. The worry is that it is subject to the low-end main body. The impact has led to "bad money driving out good money." The photovoltaic power generation industry has experienced two years of explosive development. Under the strong market demand, the situation of the industry's mainstays is uneven. The various links in the industry chain, the accumulation of technology and experience, and the manufacturing base are weakened. This is a long-term industry. Sustainable development is unfavorable. At present, although the bad money has not become the mainstream of the industry, and because the high-scale market is strong, the bad money has not yet emerged, but once the market size declines, the risk exists. Under the premise that the market structure is fixed and the mechanism is not moved, the subsidy reduction in 2018 will inevitably cause enterprises to worry about the bad money to drive out good money. And a high-quality enterprise hopes that the market share will not be squeezed out and its performance will not be affected. It must abandon the pure pursuit of investment costs, but look to the long-term and do it yourself. First, we must refresh our consciousness and consider the long-term strategy from the cyclical price of life. In recent years, the transparency of the new energy industry has increased. If enterprises pursue low prices and give up their insistence on quality, low-quality products will affect the future investment of enterprises. Therefore, enterprises should not focus on simply reducing investment and reducing costs, but through the application of advanced technologies, seeking new markets, and exerting the advantages of technology, industry base and scale, and competing with low-end enterprises, will " The bad money "extrusion bureau. Second, we must pay attention to overseas opportunities and gain more potential benefits. At present, the domestic market is booming, and the overseas market is constantly refreshing the new energy bid price. The industry and the industry are questioning whether the offshore enterprises can obtain actual income in addition to strategic investment. From the experience of some enterprises, although “going out” has the component of strategic investment, it benefits from the rapid decline of new energy costs. Under the condition of cost control, investment projects can obtain reasonable income. Therefore, grasping key technologies, reducing costs, investing overseas, and expanding potential markets will help enterprises to take advantage of the subsequent competition with bad money.

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