Goldman Sachs said in a research report released on Thursday that due to the expansion of photovoltaic power generation in the US, Europe, the Middle East and China, it is expected that the installed capacity of photovoltaics in the next two years will increase by 12% and 10% respectively.
Goldman Sachs said, “It is expected that the combination of reduced photovoltaic power generation costs and favorable policy support will bring years of growth to the utility-scale PV installations and bring upside potential for the market.â€
In fact, as governments and companies set a goal for sustainable energy development, clean power generation, such as photovoltaic power generation, is gaining market share from traditional fossil fuels such as coal and natural gas.
According to estimates by Goldman Sachs, the global installed capacity of photovoltaics will reach 108 GW in 2019, up 12% from the previous year, and will increase by 10% to 119 GW in 2020; the growth rate will slow down in 2021 and 2022. , but will still reach 129GW and 135GW.
The utility-scale photovoltaic installations speculated by Goldman Sachs are facilities that are directed to the grid. If the PV used in residential buildings is counted, the annual installed capacity will reach 600 GW.
The boom in photovoltaic power generation is also related to the decline in PV panel prices in recent years. According to data from energy consultancy Wood Mackenzie, the cost of battery panels has plummeted from $70 per watt in 1980 to $0.36 per watt today.
Goldman Sachs expects strong growth in the US, Europe and the Middle East, and China has some room for growth. After experiencing the impact of the “531 Policy†subsidy retreating in 2018, China’s demand for photovoltaic power generation has stabilized.
This is related to China's promotion of the price level of photovoltaics. The National Development and Reform Commission and the Energy Bureau issued a notice to promote the price level of photovoltaic emission in January this year. The Energy Bureau then held a symposium on photovoltaic power generation companies in February to adjust subsidies and bidding.
At present, most of China's regions have achieved supply-side parity online, that is, the cost of power generation is lower than the price of electricity sold. On January 22 this year, Meng Wei, a spokesperson of the National Development and Reform Commission, confirmed that at present, in areas with excellent resource conditions, low construction costs, and good investment and market conditions, the cost of photovoltaic power generation has reached the level of coal-fired benchmark on-grid electricity price, that is, the power generation side has been realized. Affordable internet access.
The CITIC Jiantou policy is expected to generate 40GW of PV installed capacity in China in 2019 and 2020. GF Securities expects that the installed capacity in China will be 41.5~48GW in 2019. For the industry, the increase in installed capacity will drive the growth of power plants of downstream power station investors, and drive the growth of demand for middle and upstream equipment and raw materials.
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