The international crude oil price has not changed the trend of wide oscillation in the recent period, although in the earlier period, an important oil pipeline from Canada to the Midwest was leaked in Illinois, causing oil prices to briefly rise to the level of 78 US dollars. However, due to the rapid repair and recovery of the pipeline, the price of oil fell back to around 75 U.S. dollars, continuing the previous oscillation pattern, while the center of gravity of the oscillation range moved slightly upwards.
The U.S. economy is staggering and Chinese demand supports oil prices
In recent days, although the economic indicators of the United States have stopped deteriorating, and the discussion on the second bottom of the economy has also come to an end, the economic indicators have not shown any significant improvement. US Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke also reiterated his disappointment with the progress of the economic recovery. Although the operation of the financial market has basically returned to normal, a series of policy measures have not led to a strong economic recovery. In addition, the previous stimulus policies also began to gradually reveal its side effects. For example, although US existing home sales in August increased by 7.7%, it is still difficult to offset the 27% drop in July; although the number of **** applications has stabilized at this year's low, it does not show that The momentum of the rebound. Last week, the number of jobless claims for the first time in the United States increased by more than economists' expectations and increased by 12,000 to 465,000 people. This again reminded us that the US job market's weakness has not changed. The fact that the US economy is struggling on the road to recovery makes it hard to believe that its demand for crude oil will greatly improve.
In comparison, although China has also experienced a slowdown in economic growth, it is still a strong support for global crude oil demand. China’s General Administration of Customs confirmed that China’s crude oil imports in August reached 20.9 million tons, equivalent to an average daily import of 4.94 million barrels, an increase of 13.2% over the same period of last year, and an increase from the 19 million tons imported in July. 10%. However, China has adjusted its structure and eliminated the need for backward production capacity. The economic growth rate has begun to slow down. China's GDP growth has declined from 11.9% in the first quarter to 10.3% in the second quarter, and a considerable number of economists believe that In the fourth quarter, the economic growth rate will continue to slow down. Therefore, demand from China cannot provide substantial boost to oil prices in the coming period.
Although the recovery of the European economy can sometimes make people brighten up, its complex and inefficient organizational structure and unsustainable unemployment rate make it impossible for people to expect high hopes. On Thursday, two economic data were released in Europe. The extent of its misfortune was out of investors' expectations. The data showed that the Irish economy was in a contraction phase, and that euro zone business activity was also at a seven-month low. Although the German economy, especially exports, has been driven by the strong demand of developing countries, including China and Brazil, for a period of time, it has become the leader in the economic growth of the entire euro zone, but it has been dragged down by Spain, Ireland, Greece and other countries. Under the circumstances, the recovery of the euro area economy will take a long time.
Oil inventory pressure will not fade for the time being
U.S. oil inventories are still at historically high levels. The early period of commercial inventories of crude oil has declined for two consecutive weeks. However, the latest U.S. inventory data shows that US crude oil inventories in the week of Sept. 17 increased another 970,000 barrels. It reached a high of 385.34 million barrels, while gasoline stockpiles rebounded by 1.59 million barrels, fully reflecting the negative impact of the end of summer US travel peaks on gasoline demand. In addition to aviation kerosene, most of the U.S. oil weekly inventory data rose at a 27-year high, especially for diesel and heating oil stocks have increased to the highest level since 1981, which has exerted a huge suppressing effect on rising oil prices. . In addition, as the US oil refineries have started to slow down for maintenance, preparing for the upcoming winter peak demand for heating oil, the US crude oil inventories level will not be substantially cut in the short term, thus the United States The suppression of high oil stocks on oil prices will also continue in a certain period of time.
Wide oscillation will become the main tone of the oil price in the near future
As we have maintained in the previous period, due to the amplification effect of the financial attributes of crude oil on the attributes of basic commodities, a small disturbance in the supply and demand of crude oil will cause the oil price to fluctuate drastically. The oil price rise and fall caused by the leakage of the Enbridge oil pipeline is the best example. Although the pipeline temporarily shut down due to leakage was 670,000 barrels a day, it accounted for less than 1% of the world's crude oil demand of about 85 million barrels per day. However, it is this less than 1% perturbation that has caused the oil price to be as high as 5.29 US dollars, or about 7% of the oscillation. As many oil traders are worried about, the US WTI contract prices that are instructive to international oil prices can no longer accurately show the international crude oil supply and demand relationship. This aspect is caused by the financial attributes of crude oil, on the other hand, it is also due to WTI itself as a light crude oil, and global (0)(0) Comment on this article Other comments on topics Related information Financial Information Forum Please enter verification code consumption Compared to the heavier heavy crude oil, the fundamentals are still slightly different. However, as long as the global macroeconomic slow recovery environment has not changed, as long as WTI crude oil as the international oil price mark's status has not wavered, then the oil price turmoil in the short term and the lack of regular trend will continue.
In summary, due to the economic recovery in the United States, China, and the euro zone slowing down, the rise in oil prices lacks fundamental support; while oil inventories in the United States are at historically high levels and pressure on oil prices, this situation requires heating oil in winter. There will be no noticeable improvement before the peak. The financial attributes of crude oil have been fully exposed, and its amplification of the oil price oscillation will dominate in the near future.