Affected by the downgrade of the US sovereign debt rating by the S&P last Friday and the continued fermentation of the European debt crisis, the global market once again experienced a collective plunge this Monday. Although the Group of Seven (G 7) issued a joint statement before the Asian market opened, it said it would take all necessary measures to ensure financial stability and economic growth, but experts interviewed by the Economic Information Daily generally believe that such interventions are effective. It is doubtful that the global economy will eventually fall into a full-scale recession, and China’s monetary policy may also face fine-tuning. On Sunday, the TA-25 index of the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange of Australia fell over 6% after the opening bell, and the index fell by 6.99% at the close. However, this is just a preview of the global market “Black Mondayâ€, and the global market continued to show a full-line decline on Monday. In the Asia-Pacific market, the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index and the Tokyo Nikkei 225 Index fell 2.17% and 2.18% respectively, and the Korean stock market even temporarily suspended trading. In the domestic market, the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Stock Exchange Index continued to fall sharply. At the close, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 2526.82 points, down 99.60 points, or 3.79%. The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 11312.63 points, down 389.13 points, or 3.33%, and the two cities fell more than 90%. On the 8th, European stock markets fell across the board. The London FTSE 100 index fell 3.39%, the Paris CAC 40 index fell 4.68%, and the Frankfurt DAX index fell 5.02%. The US stock market also fell sharply. As of press time, the Dow Jones index fell 2.77%, the S&P 500 industrial index fell 3.44%, and the Nasdaq index fell 3.65%. In addition to the stock market, the commodity market continued to fall across the board. On Monday, the domestic futures market, except for corn and sugar, was relatively resistant to decline. Almost all the lines were green, non-ferrous metals were among the top losers, Shanghai copper and Shanghai aluminum fell more than 2%, and Shanghai zinc fell more than 3%. As the global financial market is in an extremely pessimistic mood, the market risk aversion has heated up so that gold has become the most respected straw. International gold prices soared in Asia on Monday, both spot gold and COMEX gold futures broke through the $1,700/oz integer mark. Domestically, Shanghai gold futures rose more than 3% on Monday, closing at 354.47 yuan, a record high. “The biggest immediate risk facing commodities is not the actual downgrade, but the further increase in global economic uncertainty and policy risks in the future; in the current global downturn, the liquidity premium may rise, in the short term, the US Actual borrowing costs may increase, and a stronger dollar may have a negative impact on commodity prices,†said Wei Wende, head of commodity trading strategy at Standard Bank. In response to the panic in the global market, the G7 finance ministers and central bank governors issued a joint statement before the opening of the Asian market on the 8th, saying that they will take all necessary measures to ensure financial stability and economic growth, and will jointly act to protect the market when necessary. Liquidity ensures that financial markets operate effectively. On the same day, the G20 finance ministers and central bank officials also issued a joint statement, saying that the G 20 will remain in close contact and take action when necessary to ensure financial stability and market liquidity. However, in response to this move by G7, economists interviewed by the Economic Information Daily generally believe that the effect is limited. Li Xunlei, chief macro economist of Guotai Junan, told the Economic Information Daily that due to such a terrible decline in the market, many economies have introduced measures to avoid further deterioration of the economy. The downgrade of the S&P signal gave the market a strong economic downturn, but it was not enough to cause an economic crisis, so the measures taken by the economies were relatively mild. Then, each economy will introduce corresponding countermeasures, and the market panic will be relieved to a certain extent, but the fundamental problems will continue. "(Intervention) cannot change the trend of slow economic decline in Europe and the United States." Li Xunlei said that after the US President Barack Obama took office, he reformed the medical system and expanded financial expenditures, but did not achieve effective taxation for the rich. The balance sheet is getting worse and this problem will continue to accumulate. "Until now, neither the United States nor Europe have come up with effective ways to curb the economic recession. The slow recession of this economy will certainly worsen, and eventually the entire developed economy will move towards a full-scale recession." Li Xunlei said In this case, emerging economies, including China, are also difficult to protect themselves. "I have reservations about this (G7 intervention effect)." Li Huiyong, chief macro economist of Shenyin Wanguo, also told the "Economic Information Daily" reporter that due to the large intervention power of G7, the time exceeded the market expectations. It will play a role in stabilizing the short-term panic in the global market, but its final impact will still depend on the performance of the European and American economies. "My government may also adopt similar countermeasures." Li Xunlei believes that under the premise of macro-prudential management, monetary policy may be fine-tuned to a certain extent. He analyzed that the impact of this downgrade on China is not too great. On the one hand, this will affect China's exports, and on the other hand it will affect China's foreign exchange reserves. Domestic investment enthusiasm will be further reduced, which means that inflationary pressures will be somewhat relieved, and there may be a moderate slowdown in the intensity of monetary policy. Li Huiyong also said that the Chinese economy is currently facing internal and external problems. If the world economic growth is lower than originally expected, and the domestic economic growth rate is slower than expected, the policy will enter the stable period ahead of time, but it is still difficult to judge.
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