Negative growth in power generation in March, slowdown in high-energy-consuming industries As a leading indicator of the economic situation, power generation and electricity consumption are considered to be the weather vane for future warming.
On April 3, people close to the State Grid and China Southern Power Grid Dispatching Center said that the data of various power grid dispatching centers in March still had negative growth.
Among them, the national power grid's dispatching volume in March decreased by 0.7% year-on-year, and in late March, it decreased by 2%. This caused the power consumption in the first quarter to fall by about 2.2%. The electricity consumption of the dispatch center accounts for 60%-70% of the electricity consumption of the whole society. This shows that the electricity consumption situation in the whole society in March is still not optimistic.
Earlier data revealed that in March, Guangdong Power Grid's unified data showed that electricity consumption dropped by about 3%, while East China Power Grid, which covers Shanghai, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Anhui, and Fujian provinces, lost electricity by about 4%.
According to the understanding, the decline in electricity consumption data in March was mainly due to the slowdown in the development of high-energy-consuming industries.
On April 3, the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing released figures show that in March, the five industry PMIs of steel and nonferrous metals were less than 50%, reflecting the contraction of the industry. The steel production index is at the 50% critical point, while the February production index is above 50%. 3 industries such as non-ferrous metals are less than 50%. New orders are below 50%.
Gao Wei, senior economist of the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, said that the electricity consumption data in March was not good, and that the current upstream (factory price PPI), midstream (circulation), and downstream product prices (residential consumer price CPI) In the downturn, this reflects that the total economic demand is still insufficient, so the next trend is still to be observed.
According to data released by the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, the National Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) was 52.4% in March, up from 3.4 percentage points in the previous month. This is in contrast to the decline in the data released by CLSA on April 1.
According to Ma Jiantang, director of the National Bureau of Statistics, China’s figures are more authoritative because of the survey of more than 700 companies and nearly half of the companies surveyed by CLSA. He judged that the PMI has rebounded for four consecutive months since December of last year and has crossed the 50-point mark that marks the boundary between economic expansion and contraction, meaning that the Chinese economy is likely to have stabilized.
"The trend of the next few months should be well observed. If the PMI index rises for a few more months, then the situation can be said to be better. If there is a decline in the next few months, it means that the new economic stimulus plan will come out later." Wei said.
Specifically, the increase in the PMI index announced by the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing is mainly related to the increase in production and order indices such as electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing. For example, the industry output index of the five industries led by the industry reached more than 60%, driving the procurement production index in March to 56.9%, up 5.7 percentage points from the previous month.
However, according to the data, although the new export order index rose in March, it remained at a low level.
The new export orders index for March 2009 was 47.5%, up 4.1 percentage points from the previous month. Among the 20 industries, only 6 industries such as electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing and tobacco products industry are higher than 50%, and currently 14 industries such as the automobile industry (transport equipment manufacturing industry) with better sales are lower than 50. %, especially steel (black metal smelting and rolling processing industry) is the lowest, less than 30%.
A car group in Jiangxi said that the current car sales are only partially improved, such as agricultural vehicles going to the countryside, the entire auto industry is still not optimistic.
According to the understanding, on the 10th to 12th of this month, the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will convene a number of industry associations including steel, automobile, coal, petrochemical, textile, building materials, machinery, logistics, etc., and study together with the Bureau of Statistics. Quarterly economic situation.
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