Steel prices fell slightly in October

In October, the steel market continued to show an oversupply situation, and steel prices continued to decline slightly. In the late period, the market gradually entered the off-season of steel consumption, steel demand and output will all decline, the market will remain weakly balanced, and steel prices will be relatively stable.

1. Steel prices in the domestic market continued to fall slightly. At the end of October, the comprehensive price index for steel and iron associations (CSPI) was 99.34 points, a decrease of 1.23 points (1.22%) from the previous period and a decrease of 6.05 points (5.74%) from the same period of last year. The steel price index dropped below 100 points again.

1. The prices of long products and sheet materials all declined. At the end of October, the CSPI longevity index was 101.52 points, a decrease of 1.33 points or 1.29% from the previous month, and the sheet index was 98.70 points, a decrease of 1.25 points from the previous month, a decrease of 1.25%. Compared with the same period of last year, the long products index decreased by 8.00 points, a decrease of 7.30%; the sheet metal index decreased by 4.07 points, a decrease of 3.96%.

2. The prices of major steel products continued to decline At the end of October, prices of the eight steel products monitored by the China Iron and Steel Association continued to decline. Among them, the prices of high-grade steel, rebar, hot-rolled coils, and medium- and thick-plate prices have narrowed. Respectively, they fell 52 yuan/ton, 47 yuan/ton, 72 yuan/ton, and 57 yuan/ton from the previous quarter; the price declines of angle steel, galvanized steel sheet and hot rolled seamless steel tubes increased slightly, and they decreased by 48 yuan/ton respectively. 25 yuan / ton and 53 yuan / ton; cold-rolled sheet prices from rising to fall, the chain fell 34 yuan / ton.

3, steel prices showed a week-by-week decline in the situation from each week, since the fourth week of August, to the fourth week of October, CSPI steel comprehensive price index has dropped for the eighth consecutive week. Since November, steel prices have continued to decline in the first week and rebounded slightly in the second and third weeks.

Second, the domestic market analysis of steel price changes In October, although the daily output of crude steel has declined, but overall still at a relatively high level. Coupled with the influence of the National Day holiday, the demand for steel products has slowed down, and the price of steel products has declined slightly.

1. The main steel industry continued to grow, but the growth rate slowed. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to October, the national fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) increased by 20.1% year-on-year, and the growth rate fell from January to September. 0.1 percentage points; real estate development investment increased by 19.2% year-on-year, with the growth rate falling by 0.5% from January to September; in October, the industrial added value above designated size increased by 10.3% year-on-year, 0.1 percentage point higher than that in September; total social electricity consumption 437,500 million kWh, a month-on-month decrease of 4.71% (calendar days); national rail cargos delivered 11.23 million tons of goods per day, a month-on-month increase of 1.54%, but the increase narrowed by 3.19 percentage points from the previous month; PPI was flat, a year-on-year decrease of 1.5%. The decrease was 0.2% higher than that in September; the manufacturing PMI was 51.4%, up 0.3% from the previous month, but the new order index and the new export order index dropped by 0.3%. 506.1 billion yuan, a decrease of 280.9 billion yuan. Looking at the overall situation, the major steel industry continued to grow, but the growth rate slowed down.

2. The daily output of crude steel declined slightly but remained at a relatively high level. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the output of pig iron, crude steel and steel (including repetitive materials) was 58.75 million tons, 65.08 million tons and 92.81 million tons respectively in October. , respectively, year-on-year growth of 7.7%, 9.2% and 12.3%; daily output of 2.0994 million tons of crude steel, a decrease of 81,300 tons, a decrease of 3.73%. According to customs statistics, the country exported 5.07 million tons of steel, an increase of 150,000 tons, an increase of 3.05%; imported steel 114 million tons, a decrease of 100,000 tons, a decrease of 8.06%. The imported steel billet was 20,000 tons, which was equal to that of the previous month. The total billets were equivalent to 4.2 million tons of net crude steel exports, an increase of 300,000 tons from the previous month, an increase of 7.69%. Although the output of crude steel decreased month-on-month and the net export volume increased, the contradiction between the supply and demand in the domestic market was still prominent due to the National Day holiday in October.

3. The price of imported iron ore continues to rise, which has a certain supporting effect on steel prices. In October, the prices of raw materials for steel production in the domestic market were mixed, including: the price of imported iron ore (customs) increased by 2.39 US dollars/ton. The increase was 1.89%, which rose for the third consecutive month. The price of coking coal increased by RMB 70/ton or 6.39% from the previous month; the price of domestic fine iron ore powder, metallurgical coke and scrap declined, but the decrease was small. The increase in the price of imported iron ore has a certain supporting effect on steel prices.

Third, the international market continues to decline in steel prices at the end of October, CRU International Steel Composite Price Index was 166.6 points, down 1.6 points, a decrease of 0.9%; down 4.0 points, a decrease of 2.3%.

1. The prices of long products and sheet materials have declined. The decline rate of sheet metal is higher than that of long products. At the end of October, the price index of CRU long products was 182.2 points, a decrease of 1.3 points from the previous month, a decrease of 0.7%; the price index of sheet metal was 159.5 points, a decrease of 1.7% from the previous month. Point, a decline of 1.0%, 0.3% higher than the decline in long products. Compared with the same period of last year, the long products index fell 6.8 points, a decrease of 3.6%; sheet metal index fell 1.9 points, a decrease of 1.2%.

2. The price of North American steel fell from rising to rising. Europe decreased from rising to falling, and Asia continued to decline. (1) North American Market At the end of October, the CRU North American steel price index was 172.2 points, which was an increase of 2.3 points or 1.4% from the previous quarter. The demand for steel in the U.S. market has increased. In October, the U.S. manufacturing PMI was 56.4%, up by 0.2 percentage point month-on-month, of which the new orders index rose by 0.1 percentage points, and the inventory index and the customer inventory index rose by 2.5 and 4.0 percentage points respectively. At the end of October, the U.S. crude steel capacity utilization rate was 75.8%, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points from the end of last month. The price of hot rolled coils and cold rolled coils of steel mills in the Midwest of the United States fell from a downward trend this month, and the decrease in steel prices narrowed. The prices of other types of steel products fell slightly.

(2) European market At the end of October, the CRU European steel price index was 157.7 points, a decrease of 5.1 points from the previous month, and a decrease of 3.1%. The development of European economy continued unbalanced. In October, the manufacturing PMI in the euro zone was 51.3%, which was the same as last month. Among major European countries, German and Spanish manufacturing PMIs rose by 0.2 percentage points, while British and Italian manufacturing PMIs fell by 0.3 and 0.1 percentage points respectively. France continued to shrink, with a manufacturing PMI of 49.1%, a month-on-month decline. 0.3 percentage points. The price of plate and hot rolled coils in the UK market this month rose from high to low. The prices of cold rolled coils and hot dip galvanized sheets remained stable. The prices of steel bars and Wire rods increased from flat to low, and the prices of small sections and steel bars continued to rise, but The increase has narrowed.

(3) Asian market At the end of October, the CRU Asian steel price index was 168.7 points, a decrease of 1.1 points or 0.7% from the previous quarter. In October, Japan's manufacturing PMI was 54.2%, which was 2.0 percentage points higher than the previous month, but its new export order index decreased by 0.2%; China PMI was 51.4%, 0.3% higher than the previous month, but the new orders and new export orders index were respectively Decline of 0.3%; South Korea's PMI was 50.2%, up 0.5% compared to the previous month; China's Taiwan PMI was 51.6%, down 0.4% from the previous quarter. On the whole, Far East market steel demand in the Far East market slowed down this month, long products prices fell from rising to falling, and sheet and strip heat galvanized sheet remained stable, while prices of other varieties declined.

IV. Analysis of late-stage steel market price trends At present, China's economy continues to show a trend of stabilization, steel demand continues to grow, steel production has decreased month-on-month, and social inventories have continued to decrease. Steel prices are expected to remain relatively stable in the later period.

1. The steady and rapid development of the national economy has driven the growth in demand for steel products. Since the beginning of this year, in response to the complex domestic and international situation, the new central government has adopted a series of policy measures for stabilizing growth and structural adjustments, and the national economy has been steadily rising. Stable to good development trend. From the macro data, from January to October, the national industrial electricity consumption increased by 6.6% year-on-year, 3.4 percentage points higher than the growth rate in the same period of last year, and 0.2 percentage point higher than that in the first nine months; the total amount of railway freight transportation in the country increased by 1.2% year-on-year. %, the growth rate went from negative to positive, up by 0.8 percentage point from January to September; ***** increased by 7.78 trillion yuan, an increase of 557.7 billion yuan year-on-year; and the GDP growth in the third quarter was 7.8% year-on-year. Accelerated by 0.3 percentage points in the second quarter, and it is expected to reach or exceed the 7.5% scheduled growth target throughout the year. At the Third Plenary Session of the 18th Central Committee, which was just concluded, *** proposed that the system of urbanization development be further improved and that urban and rural integration be actively promoted. From the perspective of later development, the integration of urbanization with new trends such as informatization and low carbon will release a new driving force for sustained and rapid economic development, and drive the continued growth of steel demand.

2. The market gradually entered the demand off-season, and steel social inventories continued to decline. At the end of October, steel society stocks in the major markets of the country were 13.3 million tons, a decrease of 290,000 tons compared with the previous period, a decrease of 2.08%, and fell for the seventh month in a row, since this year. The lowest level of single-month steel stocks. As the weather turns cold, the steel market gradually enters the off-season demand. Affected by the pressure of fund recovery at the end of the year, steel stocks will continue to fall slightly.

3. The market is in a weak equilibrium and steel prices are unlikely to rise sharply. The daily output of crude steel rose significantly in October after two consecutive months of chain growth. It declined significantly in October and fell to the lowest level since February of this year, indicating that companies adjust their production rhythm according to market conditions. Enhanced. In the later period, the market gradually entered the demand off-season, and crude steel production would not be too high. It is expected that the market supply and demand will remain in a weak equilibrium, and it is difficult for steel prices to rebound sharply.

The main issues that the market needs to pay attention to in the later period:

First, the price of imported iron ore continues to rise. In October, the average price of imported iron ore (Customs) nationwide was US$128.57/ton, which rose for the third consecutive month, the highest level in the second half of the year. At the end of October, CSPI China's steel price index fell to 99.34 points, a decrease of 1.22% from the previous month, and fell for the second consecutive month. The impact of the decline in the price of imported iron ore will be gradually reflected in the late-stage cost of steel mills.

The second is the further decline in the export prices of steel products. As of November 15, the median price of 1 yuan against the US dollar rose to 0.163, an increase of 2.54% over the same period of last year. In October, the average price of China's steel exports was only 828 US dollars / ton, the ring was basically flat last month, but fell by 77 US dollars / ton from the highest in May, a drop of 5 US dollars / ton compared with the same month of last year. In the later period, the international market will gradually enter the off-season demand, and the export prices of steel products will be difficult to increase.

Third, the oversupply of the steel market is difficult to reverse in the short term. In October, the State Council promulgated the Guiding Opinions on Resolving the Contradiction of Serious Overcapacity (Gufa [2013] No. 41), which proposed new goals and requirements for resolving the serious excess capacity of the steel industry. At the same time, the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region has increased the enforcement of environmental protection, energy-saving and emission reduction, and the impact on the steel market will gradually emerge.