Libyan oil resources battle has begun

â–¡ A Libyan opposition officer drives through an oil refinery in Zawije

The war in Libya’s capital, Tripoli, is not yet over. Global oil wars have begun.

International Energy Newsletter: According to analysis by The New York Times and Reuters, the Western countries, especially NATO countries, helped the Libyan opposition to exchange opportunities for the redistribution of oil resources in Libya.

According to the “Tripoli Post” report, overseas deposits of Qaddafi and its family members frozen will be used for post-war reconstruction in Libya.

Recovery of oil production will be faster than expected Libya’s crude oil reserves will reach 46.4 billion barrels, ranking 9th in the world and top in Africa. Although Libya’s crude oil output before the civil war was about 1.3 million to 1.6 million barrels per day, less than 2% of the global oil supply, Libya’s oil is on the international market due to its high quality and low* light crude oil production ranking first in the world. The hot commodity.

According to the "Wall Street Journal" report, the current daily production of crude oil in Libya has dropped sharply to 50,000 barrels, resulting in a shortage of high-quality crude oil to make oil prices in the international market higher. Since Libya had been deadlocked for several months, many experts had believed that Libya would take several years to restore its pre-war exports.

However, with the breakthrough made by the opposition, this view has changed. The Wall Street Journal reported that Libya's crude oil may return to the global market far faster than expected, given that the Libyan opposition now controls most of Libya’s oil fields, refineries, and export ports.

European energy companies require government to launch operations According to Reuters, many countries have fiercely competed in order to seize a favorable position in the restructured Libyan oil market after the end of the civil war.

"There is no problem in cooperating with companies from Western countries such as Italy, France and the United Kingdom." Reuters quoted the statement of opposition-controlled Agoco Oil Company spokesman Abdul-Jariuri Mayouf to illustrate The biggest beneficiaries of the redistribution of oil resources in Libya will be NATO members.

According to the “New York Times”, European energy companies such as France’s Total Group and Britain’s British Petroleum (BP) required their governments to actively seek Libya’s oilfield exploitation rights. Even US companies that have not actively participated in the production of Libya’s crude oil are also eyeing the oil market in Libya.

Italian Foreign Minister Frattini said on the 22nd: “The technicians of the Italian oil company Eni Group have already travelled to the east of Libya to resume production of oil.” However, the Eni Group denied this news.

French President Nicolas Sarkozy met with Libya’s “National Transitional Council” Jahrer on the 22nd. According to foreign reports, France will use its active leadership of NATO air strikes to gain priority for Libya’s oil extraction.

It is reported that Qatar is expected to use its role in the air strike against Qaddafi as a springboard to enter the Libya's local oil market.

The opposition has different opinions on China’s rights and interests According to the “Lianhe Zaobao” news, the opposition had previously stated that it would remember who is a friend and who is an enemy, and will negotiate oil exploitation contracts based on this principle.

This “reward of rewarding the merits” approach has previously led to opposition to Qaddafi’s severe sanctions and believes that countries that should solve problems through peace talks are paralysed.

Libya's Agoco Oil Company spokesperson Mayouf said: "We may have problems when we work with companies in Russia, China and Brazil."

However, according to a report by Reuters on the 24th, Ahmed Janjani, the head of reconstruction of Libya’s “National Transitional Council”, said in an interview on the 23rd that he would abide by the oil agreement signed by the Qaddafi regime. “In the oil field, The signed contracts are inviolable. All legal contracts will be strictly observed, whether they are oil, natural gas or contractors."

In addition, Jehani also stressed that the new regime welcomes investment and financial assistance from China to help Libya in post-war reconstruction.

US$50 billion of frozen funds will be used for reconstruction According to a report by the “Lianhe Zaobao,” Libyan’s “National Transitional Council” Executive Director Jabbliller said on the 23rd that the opposition is seeking assistance of 2.5 trillion U.S. dollars from the international community to help Libya, which experienced six months of war, resumed.

Jabelle also expressed the desire to freeze Libya’s assets frozen by various countries as soon as possible. He believes that the thawing of this fund is of great significance to the transitional government.

South Korea’s “Central Daily” on the 23rd quoted South Korean government officials as saying that “Gaddafi’s funds that exist overseas in the name of family members or relatives have been frozen,” and it is estimated that the total amount of funds is as much as US$50 billion. British Prime Minister David Cameron has stated that he will "freeze the frozen Qaddafi deposits belonging to the Libyan people as soon as possible," and the European Union said that he will "choose a suitable opportunity to thaw these frozen funds and use them for reconstruction in Libya." ".

The Chinese Embassy in Libya has made every effort to ensure that the security of Chinese citizens in Libya is trapped in the hotel. 5 Chinese reporters were rescued. According to a report in the China Daily on the 23rd, UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon talks with Libya’s “National Transitional Council”**Jalil. Ensure the safety of foreign embassies and consulates in the country. Jalil said that he will take this matter seriously.

Chinese Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi also agreed to contact with Ban Ki-moon on the situation in Libya on the 23rd.

Yang Jiechi emphasized that it is necessary to earnestly safeguard the security of foreign countries’ diplomatic institutions and other personnel in Libya, and stated that China is doing the work of Libya’s relevant parties on the safety of Chinese embassy personnel, journalists, and other Chinese citizens. It is hoped that the United Nations will give play to this. positive effects.

Ban Ki-moon said that the United Nations will pay attention to the safety of Chinese and other countries in Lebanon's diplomatic institutions and personnel, and actively work on this.

The Rixos Hotel in Tripoli reported on the 24th. The hotel has 35 foreign journalists, including 5 Chinese reporters - 2 from CCTV and 3 from Phoenix TV.

On the early morning of the 25th, the latest news from the website of the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated that through the unremitting efforts of the Chinese Embassy in Libya and the Chinese side’s temporary working group in Benghazi, the Chinese Embassy in Libya has successfully secured the five Chinese journalists trapped in the Tripoli hotel. Properly resettled. Another source said that because Gaddafi’s troops had already withdrawn from the hotel, more than 30 foreign journalists in the hotel were rescued and left the hotel.

[News Analysis]

Gaddafi may possess chemical and biological weapons. Al Qaeda may take the opportunity to infiltrate the Libyan opposition to face internal and external troubles. According to Xinhua News, the opposition armed forces have basically controlled the capital. In addition, across the country, the opposition also occupied most of the area. The opposition pledged on the 24th to hold elections within eight months.

However, analysts point out that it is not time for the opposition to celebrate victory because many serious and pressing challenges are still before them. Whether or not these challenges can be effectively dealt with will be related to the future political future of the opposition.

Scattered troops or bring security problems At present, although the opposition occupied the Aziziya barracks, they did not seize Gaddafi and his son.

If the opposition does not catch Qaddafi and his sons, it may be difficult to eliminate some of the potential major security issues. According to reports, at the moment, the remaining Qaddafi still holds more than 200 Scuds and biochemical weapons. Analysts believe that if Gaddafi actually possesses biological and chemical weapons, he will cause certain opposition to the opposition.

Right now, Libya’s social order is chaotic. There are two main manifestations:

First, the security situation is very serious, and there are scattered and scattered soldiers everywhere, and civilian life and property are seriously affected. Some international organizations fear that after Qaddafi’s overthrow, some opposition militants are likely to carry out large-scale retaliation against Gaddafi’s supporters, leading to serious security problems such as robbery, murder, and slaughter; the second is the situation of civilians. Difficulties, shortage of supplies for daily necessities.

At the same time, the Libyan opposition needs to quickly bridge internal differences and immediately set about establishing a new regime to meet various challenges. Prior to this, the opposition "National Transitional Council" announced the "Constitution**." However, ** is not optimistic about the prospects of the opposition’s implementation of the Constitution. The Wall Street Journal and The New York Times reported on the 22nd that the U.S. and other Western governments are cautious about whether the smooth transition of Libya can be smoothly after the Qaddafi regime is overthrown.

In addition, in the 42 years that Qaddafi took power, Libya did not have political parties. Therefore, the opposition’s process of electing and building a ** country is not easy.

How to "repay" the West is a difficult problem Libya's opposition is overthrowing Gaddafi's regime with the full cooperation and support of some western countries. Therefore, how to find a balance between "returning" the West and safeguarding its sovereignty and interests after the war is also a problem for the opposition. Some analysts believe that the Libyan opposition cannot win the "cake" of victory, but excessive sacrifice of national interests will cause resentment among the Libyan people.

In addition, western Libya borders Algeria, where Al Qaeda is active. After Gaddafi's fall, Al Qaeda may be waiting for opportunities to infiltrate Libya from neighboring countries and disrupt its development. Therefore, while the opposition is busy with its internal affairs, it must also effectively prevent the infiltration of external forces.