The total amount of new loans may still remain at around 350 billion yuan, and the actual loan increase is not low. The credit data for August may not be as pessimistic as the previous forecast. According to statistics, the new RMB loans of the four major state-owned banks in August were basically the same as last month, and remained at 160 billion yuan.
Based on 45% of the market share of the four major banks, new loans in August may still remain at 350 billion yuan. In addition, considering that in August, the bills issued by the banks in the first half of the year were largely due, and the actual loan increments in the month were not low.
Among the four state-owned banks, the Bank of China's RMB loans grew fastest in August, adding 72 billion yuan, making the bank's new loans this year exceeded trillions, reaching 1.06 trillion yuan. Li Lihui, president of the Bank of China, said at the previous performance conference that the scale and pace of the Bank's launch in the second half of the year will still be ahead of its peers. He believes that the increase and growth rate of BOC loans in the first half of the year was the highest among the peers, indicating that the Bank's market competitiveness has been further improved.
However, in addition to the Bank of China's outstanding show, the level of new loans for the three state-owned banks of workers and peasants is not high. In August, ICBC added RMB 38 billion in RMB loans. As of the end of August, new RMB loans amounted to nearly 900 billion yuan. The Agricultural Bank of China added 20 billion yuan in loans in August. As of the end of August, the Agricultural Bank of China had newly added RMB 842.6 billion in loans. Although the performance in the first half of the year was strong, a large number of bills will be due to be discounted by ABC's 311.1 billion yuan bills, which will put a lot of pressure on the bank's future loan growth.
In the first half of the year, the country's new loans were 7.37 trillion, of which bill financing was 1.7 trillion, accounting for 23%. However, as these bills have expired, since July, the bill financing of various banks has shrunk significantly or even negatively. Since the large number of bills issued in the first quarter will be concentrated in the third quarter, the total amount of bill financing in August continued to grow negatively in July. Moreover, the discount rate of bills in the second half of the year is expected to maintain a steady rise, and the amount of bill financing will run at a low level. However, some experts believe that if the substantial increase in bill financing is eliminated, the credit growth in the first half of the year is not as high as the data. Similarly, if the negative growth of bill financing is removed, the rate of slowdown in credit growth in the second half of the year is not as fast as it seems.
Among the four state-owned banks, the best control of the credit rhythm is CCB. In August, RMB loans totaled 34.7 billion yuan, an increase of 798.7 billion yuan from the beginning of the year. The bank was the earliest slowdown in credit among state-owned big banks. Guo Shuqing, chairman of CCB, made it clear at the semi-annual report of the bank that the credit rate of CCB will slow down in the second half of the year. CCB’s branch meeting also requested that the restructuring of credit be strengthened in the second half of the year, and the focus of the branch should shift from the size of the large loan to the revitalization of the existing loan. These initiatives show that the bank is trying to find a balance between “guarantee growth†and “tune structureâ€.
In addition to the fall of the state-owned banks, the joint-stock commercial banks that performed “courageous†in the second quarter also took the initiative to slow down. Banks such as Minsheng, Huaxia, CITIC and Everbright experienced negative growth in new loans in July. This trend is still in August. carry on. The main reason for this phenomenon is the pressure on capital adequacy ratio of joint-stock banks. In the first half of the year, the credit scale of the shareholding system expanded rapidly, resulting in a different degree of decline in capital adequacy ratio. Among them, the capital adequacy ratio of Pudong Development, Minsheng, Shenzhen Development Bank and Industrial Bank is less than 10%, and the core capital adequacy ratio of Shanghai Pudong Development, Shenzhen Development Bank, Minsheng, China Merchants Bank and Hua Xia Bank is less than 7%. Moreover, in the second half of the year, the regulatory authorities may also strengthen the constraints on capital replenishment methods, which will cause these banks to face greater capital replenishment pressure.
Qia Gaoqing, an analyst at Bank of Communications, pointed out that the decline in new loans was mainly the result of the supervision of the enhanced capital management and window guidance, especially the subordinated debts held by banks were not included in the capital. Although there is no implementation, this will reduce the capital adequacy ratio of the banking industry. Moreover, the management of issuing subordinated debts is more stringent and will also have a certain inhibitory effect on bank loans.
In addition, in terms of credit demand, major changes have taken place in the second half of the year. The credit supply in the first half of the year was mainly driven by the “4 trillion stimulus planâ€, with medium- and long-term infrastructure construction in the government background. In the second half of the year, the main body of credit demand will turn to independent investment by the society and enterprises. The investment willingness and capital needs of private enterprises and small and medium-sized enterprises will become the main force. However, compared with large projects and large state-owned enterprises, the financing capacity of these enterprises is obviously low.
The liquidity in the next four months will not be reversed. Although the scale of new loans in the second half of the year will inevitably fall after the first half of the year, the experts believe that the liquidity will not reverse in the next few months. The fine-tuning of the policy will focus on the structural aspects.
Ba Shusong, deputy director of the Financial Research Institute of the Development Research Center of the State Council, said that the main line of this year's macro policy is to maintain a stable economic recovery and to make a plan for the gradual withdrawal of excessively loose monetary policy. However, in the absence of a comprehensive recovery in developed economies, it is not appropriate to adopt excessively austerity measures, and expansionary policies can only be fine-tuned to some extent.
In the view of Ba Shusong, in the short-term, the policy should be fine-tuned under the tone of moderately loose monetary policy, and the guidance of liquidity should be strengthened to guide funds to the real economy. In the long run, the driving force for economic growth must be driven by government-led demand. Switching to market-driven demand shifts investment- and export-driven drivers to drivers that rely on domestic demand and technological advancement.
Ba Shusong expects that the new loans for the whole year will reach 10 trillion yuan. Although the growth rate in the second half will be much lower than that in the first half of the year, it still maintains a high growth rate. Moreover, the more positive change in the second half of the year is the transformation from quantity growth to structural optimization. In the first half of the year, the 1.7 trillion yuan bill financing will shift more to medium and long-term loans to the real economy.
In addition, to observe the indicators of market liquidity, new credit is only one of them, and M2 (broad money) growth rate is also a key indicator. Since 1998, the central bank has set M2 control targets of between 14% and 17%. Although credit growth will fall in the second half of the year, M2 will still maintain a high growth rate. Industrial Securities expects M2 to maintain at least 28% year-on-year growth in the second half of the year, which is still higher than the average growth of M2 in previous years. It is estimated that the M1 (narrow money) and M2 year-on-year growth rates in August are 27.5% and 28.5%, respectively.
Moreover, in the first half of this year, China’s foreign exchange account increased by only 948.1 billion yuan. Industrial Securities expects that with the improvement of import and export situation, foreign exchange holdings in the second half of this year will be expected to increase by 1.3 to 1.5 trillion yuan, thus replacing the domestic loans that are likely to slow down, which will support the growth of broad money supply.
Zhongjin’s Ha Jiming also expects M2 to grow by 25% this year and 20% to 22% next year, and new loans for the year will reach 10 trillion yuan. Since the discounted bills in the second half of the year can be replaced by medium and long-term loans, the actual loan support for the economy is better than expected; and the inertia of the loans is strong, and the liquidity will remain loose.
Huang Fusheng, an analyst at CITIC Construction Investment, believes that with the change of regulatory direction, strengthening the supervision of the flow of credit funds, and the gradual recovery of the macro economy, the business situation of the company will improve, and it will divert and guide some funds into the market. The real economy. In the future, bank credit will be strictly reviewed and the investment of funds will be more reasonable and effective. In the future, the support of the economy of 300 billion yuan to 400 billion yuan per month is sufficient. In addition, from January to July, the bank's bill financing reached 1.5 trillion yuan. After the expiration of this part of the bill, more than 50% of the bills will be converted into loans this year, and this part of the scale will be nearly 800 billion yuan. Therefore, it can be basically concluded that for the rest of the year, China’s monetary policy will be “tight and not shrinkingâ€.
As some experts have asserted, in the upswing period of stabilization and recovery, the monetary authorities' restrictions on credit do not mean that the economic situation will have problems, but on the contrary, it means that the current situation has improved, but it is no longer necessary to step on the credit throttle. .
Although credit continued to decline in August, if the negative growth factor of bill financing was removed, the growth of general loans was still not low compared with previous years. The agency expects that medium and long-term loan growth in the second half of the year will remain at a high level of 2.5 trillion to 3 trillion.
According to data from the central bank, financial institution bill financing fell by 198.2 billion yuan in July. The market expects that the scale of bill financing in August should continue in July. According to public data, the new bill financing in February was 487 billion yuan, most of which were concentrated in August. Some experts believe that the negative growth of credit financing has not been seen as fast as the negative growth of bill financing.
Bank of China analyst Shi Lei said that in the first half of the year, the total amount of short-term loans and bill financing increased by 3.49 trillion yuan, and the total amount of bill financing alone was as high as 1.7 trillion. It is estimated that short-term loans and bill financing will be at least 20,000 in the second half of the year. Billion, therefore, even if the loan quota control occurs in the second half of the year, commercial banks will have sufficient space to ensure the growth of medium and long-term loans due to the consideration of interest rate differentials. In the first half of 2009, the number of new medium and long-term loans increased to 3.77 trillion. In the second half of 2009, although the overall new credit scale will decline, it is expected that the growth of medium and long-term loans will remain at a high level of 2.5 trillion to 3 trillion. This ensures that liquidity in the real economy will not reverse in the second half of the year.
Dong Xianan, chief macro analyst of Industrial Securities, also said that when analyzing the investment in urban fixed asset investment in the first half of this year, it was found that a considerable portion of the funds were invested in enterprises closely related to local governments. Therefore, from the perspective of the continuity of fixed asset investment, there is reason to believe that urban fixed asset investment will continue to maintain a high level in the second half of this year, which will lead to a larger increase in RMB loans in the second half of the year.
The monthly outlook of Industrial Bank also predicts that on August 7, the central government will issue a fourth batch of investment funds, which will stimulate the recovery of urban fixed assets investment. The release of new central government investment has significantly boosted the growth rate of investment in the current month and the next month. The rough experience estimate will drive the investment in the month and the next month to accelerate by more than 3.5 percentage points. It is expected that the growth rate of urban fixed investment in August will accelerate to 32.8% to 33.8%, with a median value of 33.3%, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. According to the law of this year's project-driven loans, this will effectively drive the growth of supporting bank credit.
Wang Qing, chief economist of Morgan Stanley Greater China, believes that the recent credit decline should not be seen as a signal to tighten policy. As the proportion of bill financing declines, the proportion of medium and long-term loans rises, indicating the stimulation of growth. The policy will continue. The July investment data also shows that the growth of the baton has passed policy-driven investment to the private sector and internal demand, which is a very positive change that can quell concerns about over-investment, over-commitment of credit, and continued imbalances in economic imbalances.
Under the background that the central high-level officials have repeatedly emphasized the direction of moderately loose monetary policy, the focus of credit work in commercial banks will shift from quantitative growth to structural adjustment in the second half of the year. However, this will not affect the lending of various commercial banks, and will not affect the growth and support of the economy.
Recent economic data shows that China's macroeconomic trend is more obvious, but the foundation for recovery is not stable. Experts and institutions believe that the market's concerns about the policy shift are premature, and it is not necessary to pay attention to the “exit expectations†of the easing policy.
"The foundation of China's economic recovery is still not solid. The operating conditions of many small and medium-sized enterprises have not been fundamentally improved. In particular, the manufacturing industry has not fully recovered. Under this circumstance, the possibility of macroeconomic policy orientation adjustment is very small, and monetary policy will remain. With continuity and stability, market liquidity will remain at a certain scale,†said Lian Ping, chief economist at Bank of Communications.
However, under the premise that liquidity continues to remain abundant, the adjustment of the credit structure of various banks is inevitable. Guotai Junan's commercial bank's analysis of the credit structure change in July concluded that the overall decline in loans in July was due to the adjustment of the asset structure of commercial banks, that is, the medium and long-term loans were largely replaced by the previous bill financing. Although the number of new loans decreased significantly, the incremental decline was mainly due to the decline in corporate short-term loan balances of 10.3 billion yuan and the substantial reduction of bill financing by 198.2 billion yuan.
Experts believe that the sharp decline in bill financing and the continued increase in medium and long-term loans indicate that some government infrastructure projects follow-up loans and residential mortgage loans are still relatively strong, and banks have begun to replace bill financing with medium and long-term loans. Li Gang, the financial market department of the Agricultural Bank of China, believes that due to the high credit growth in the first half of the year, the rationality of bank loans and asset security have begun to receive more and more attention. In the first half of the year, the growth of bill financing exceeded that of medium and long-term loans, accounting for the proportion of new loans. Up to about 40%, with the implementation of investment projects in various quarters since the second quarter, a large number of bills expired, the bank focused on credit quality, a large number of bill financing was replaced by medium and long-term loans, which is also the natural decline of credit and structural optimization one of the reasons.
Guo Shikun, general manager of the research department of China Construction Bank, believes that in the second half of the year, commercial banks will further strengthen risk control, strictly enforce industry credit policies, and strengthen the structural adjustment of stock loans; they will further promote quality customers and projects in incremental loans. The concentration of its own advantageous business areas and the scale of bill financing may be greatly reduced.
Regarding the current unreasonable credit structure, Guo Shikun believes that it mainly includes the following points. First, under the environment of maintaining growth and ensuring employment, the progress of eliminating backward production capacity is much slower than expected, and affected by the rapid growth of infrastructure investment. Steel, cement and other industries have more new investment, and the risk of overcapacity has intensified. Second, more than 60% of government financing platform project credits are entirely dependent on financial repayment. Third, although the manufacturing situation has improved, it has not been fundamentally reversed; Although the financing of the bill is supported by the trade background, there may be some unclear destinations in the actual operation. For example, there are doubts about “empty†in the banking system to obtain spreads and enter the stock market and the housing market.
Experts believe that the current focus on economic development has shifted to the “structural structureâ€. The more important task at present is how to adjust the credit investment structure, allocate funds more optimally according to the trend and process of recovery of various industries, and use valuable funds to truly promote the economic growth and provide guarantee for the recovery of the real economy. In this way, we can lay a solid foundation for the long-term balanced growth of the economy, and at the same time ensure the security and benefits of credit funds to a greater extent.
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