1. Expansion of renewable energy heating (cold) business is in line with market expectations. Following the company's January 1st acquisition of a $1 billion sewage source heat pump heat supply (cold) order in Pingding County, Shanxi Province, two additional foreign investments were announced in April. The investment project in the Lingang area has been approved by the Development and Reform Commission of the Binhai New Area. The total area of ​​heat supply is 4.5983 million square meters. In June, the company announced an order for Ninghe County and built a renewable energy heating (cold) system. Not less than 5 million square meters, the total investment in the agreement is not less than 500 million yuan.
The heat supply orders for this announcement are difficult to determine the degree of contribution to the company's performance because the construction period and the charging standards are not determined, but the company’s total orders in 2011 are in line with market expectations for its renewable energy supply (cold) business. The annual new sewage source heat pump heating (cold) construction area will reach 300-500 million square meters. If the company has another new order, the company's expansion in this business will exceed expectations.
2. Shenyang, a land-use person with renewable energy sources, and we think that the Shenyang heat source of the company’s investment target announced in April is more likely to obtain the next order. Shenyang Water Resources Group, another Shenyang heat source, collects water supply, drainage, sewage, and groundwater resources. The wholly state-owned investment, construction, and management companies currently have a water supply capacity of 1.55 million cubic meters per day and a sewage treatment capacity of 1.13 million cubic meters per day, which has a regional monopoly position.
When the company invests in Shenyang heat source, it has agreed with Shenyang Water Group that it enjoys the priority of using Shenyang water resources for the use of renewable energy. According to the perennial data measured by seven sewage treatment plants in Shenyang City in 2008, the minimum water temperature for sewage treatment plants in winter is about 11°C, which is about 30°C higher than the calculated temperature for outdoor heating in winter; the maximum water temperature for summer sewage is about 26°C, which is higher than summer The outdoor air-conditioning temperature is about 5°C lower, and most of the 7 sewage treatment plants use secondary biochemical treatment technology. Because the water quality is good, the whole is very suitable for the sewage heat source heating (cold) project.
It is understood that the existing wastewater source heat pump application projects in Shenyang City are located in two municipal sewage treatment plants, of which the heating area of ​​Xiannui River Sewage Treatment Plant is about 8 000 m2; the heating area of ​​Wuli River Sewage Treatment Plant is about 6000 m2, and the sewage Source heat pump application in Shenyang has been relatively mature, and the material company will have some gains in the city.
3. Maintaining the “Overweight†Investment Rating As polysilicon prices have declined, we lowered our 2011 polysilicon business profit forecast. Due to the specific progress of the renewable energy utilization business and the heating (cold) price has not yet been negotiated, the sewage source will not be adjusted temporarily. For earnings forecast of heat pump heating (cold) business, we forecast the company's 2011/2012/2013 earnings per share to be 0.45/0.69/0.91, corresponding to a price-earnings ratio of 29.98/19.44/14.71. After considering the current valuation of the comparable company, we believe that the company The comprehensive endowment can give a 25X P/E for 2012, a target price of 17.25, and the current share price is 13.44, maintaining the “overweight†investment rating.
The heat supply orders for this announcement are difficult to determine the degree of contribution to the company's performance because the construction period and the charging standards are not determined, but the company’s total orders in 2011 are in line with market expectations for its renewable energy supply (cold) business. The annual new sewage source heat pump heating (cold) construction area will reach 300-500 million square meters. If the company has another new order, the company's expansion in this business will exceed expectations.
2. Shenyang, a land-use person with renewable energy sources, and we think that the Shenyang heat source of the company’s investment target announced in April is more likely to obtain the next order. Shenyang Water Resources Group, another Shenyang heat source, collects water supply, drainage, sewage, and groundwater resources. The wholly state-owned investment, construction, and management companies currently have a water supply capacity of 1.55 million cubic meters per day and a sewage treatment capacity of 1.13 million cubic meters per day, which has a regional monopoly position.
When the company invests in Shenyang heat source, it has agreed with Shenyang Water Group that it enjoys the priority of using Shenyang water resources for the use of renewable energy. According to the perennial data measured by seven sewage treatment plants in Shenyang City in 2008, the minimum water temperature for sewage treatment plants in winter is about 11°C, which is about 30°C higher than the calculated temperature for outdoor heating in winter; the maximum water temperature for summer sewage is about 26°C, which is higher than summer The outdoor air-conditioning temperature is about 5°C lower, and most of the 7 sewage treatment plants use secondary biochemical treatment technology. Because the water quality is good, the whole is very suitable for the sewage heat source heating (cold) project.
It is understood that the existing wastewater source heat pump application projects in Shenyang City are located in two municipal sewage treatment plants, of which the heating area of ​​Xiannui River Sewage Treatment Plant is about 8 000 m2; the heating area of ​​Wuli River Sewage Treatment Plant is about 6000 m2, and the sewage Source heat pump application in Shenyang has been relatively mature, and the material company will have some gains in the city.
3. Maintaining the “Overweight†Investment Rating As polysilicon prices have declined, we lowered our 2011 polysilicon business profit forecast. Due to the specific progress of the renewable energy utilization business and the heating (cold) price has not yet been negotiated, the sewage source will not be adjusted temporarily. For earnings forecast of heat pump heating (cold) business, we forecast the company's 2011/2012/2013 earnings per share to be 0.45/0.69/0.91, corresponding to a price-earnings ratio of 29.98/19.44/14.71. After considering the current valuation of the comparable company, we believe that the company The comprehensive endowment can give a 25X P/E for 2012, a target price of 17.25, and the current share price is 13.44, maintaining the “overweight†investment rating.
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