Daily comment: Steel prices remain high, but it is not appropriate to blindly follow the increase in purchases.

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Today's point of view

Today's domestic steel prices continue to be strong, and construction steel products continue to lead. In the state of rising prices and prices yesterday, the current transaction situation has cooled slightly. The demand has not improved significantly, but on the other hand, the futures market has opened higher and oscillated. It also has a certain impact on the transaction. As far as the current fundamentals are concerned, steel mills' inventory is still low, and frequent news of limited production is the key. Supply pressure is limited. Considering the strong attitude of steel mills ex-factory prices, steel prices are expected to remain high, and it is recommended that shipments be cashed in, It is not appropriate to pull up blindly.

Macro hotspot

1, [Zheng alcohol futures closed up, the decline in color is in the first place] Zheng alcohol closed up 3.5%, glass rose 2%, PTA, ferrosilicon, apple, thread, plastic, soybean meal rose more than 1%, vegetable, coke, Shanghai Lead, manganese silicon, PVC, coking coal, corn, Shanghai aluminum, etc. closed up. Shanghai zinc closed down 2%, white sugar, Shanghai nickel, Zheng cotton, Shanghai silver fell more than 1%, iron ore, Shanghai gold, cotton yarn, rubber, eggs, Shanghai tin, Shanghai copper, fuel, hot coil, crude oil, etc. closed down.

2, [index is not warm in the afternoon, Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macao Dawan District stand out alone]

The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 2790.96 points, down 0.18%, with a turnover of 112.5 billion.

The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 878.90 points, down 0.68%, with a turnover of 156 billion.

The GEM closed at 1518.49 points, down 0.84%, with a turnover of 4.8 billion.

3. [Ministry of Finance: Accelerate the issuance of special bonds and speed up the use of special bond funds] The Ministry of Finance said that the progress of local government bond issuance this year is not subject to quarterly equilibrium requirements. In principle, the proportion of new special bond issuance will be completed by the end of September. Not less than 80%, the remaining issuance quota should be mainly issued in October. In addition, the financial departments at all levels should promptly arrange the use of special bond income, speed up the allocation of special bond funds, prevent funds from staying in the national treasury for a long time, and play the benefits of special bonds as soon as possible.

4. [The central bank suspended the reverse repurchase for 18 consecutive days, and the fund interest rate and reverse repurchase ended “upside down”] On August 14, according to the feedback from the market market traders, the 7D REPO fixing rate was 7 days in the morning. The median transaction volume rose to 2.59%, which exceeded the open market's 7-day reverse repo rate of 2.55%. The capital market interest rate finally ended up with the reverse price of the reverse repo rate.

Market today

Raw material

Billet: The national billet market price is stable and high. Jiangsu steel billet rose 40 yuan / ton, Shanxi steel billet rose 10 yuan / ton, other regions temporarily stabilized. Today, the steel market is slowing down, steel billets are generally sold, and downstream finished product prices are rising and falling. Tangshan billet straight hair can be, storage stocks around 4070 tax-included out of the warehouse, some have transactions, steel futures high shocks, the downstream varieties of individual varieties of transactions are still acceptable, the overall weak.

Domestic mines: Some market prices of domestically produced main producing areas increased slightly. The prices of Tangshan, Qianxi and Qian'an in North China rose by RMB 5/ton, and the price of Wide City rose by RMB 10/ton. Specifically, North China-Tangshan 66% dry-based tax-included cash factory 685-695 yuan / ton, moved to the West 66% dry-based tax-included cash out of 675-685 yuan / ton, Qian'an 66% dry basis tax-included cash factory 695-705 yuan / ton; Zunhua 66% dry basis tax-included cash factory 665-675 yuan / ton; Kuancheng 65% dry basis tax-included cash factory 610 yuan / ton; Zhangping 63.5% vanadium titanium powder dry basis including tax Cash factory 520 yuan / ton

Imported mines: On the morning of the 14th, the spot market activity of imported minerals was average, and the spot was weak. The morning trader's offer rose slightly by 5 yuan/ton from yesterday, and the bargaining space expanded compared with yesterday. Taking PB powder as an example, the Shandong main port PB powder price is 510 yuan/ton, and the bargaining space is 6-7 yuan/ton from yesterday. Expanded to today's 10 yuan / ton. Steel mills, the mentality is more conservative, the general acceptance of the price increase, the afternoon diving, the market mentality weakened, occasionally the steel mills to ask for the price, but the traders prices are firmer, the market turnover is deserted throughout the day. The following are some transactions: Caofeidian Port: PB powder 511, super special powder 312/315, mixed powder 378; Jingtang Port: PB powder 510/515; Tianjin Port: PB powder 520, super special powder 333, Ba 550; Qingdao Port: PB powder 500. (Unit: RMB / ton)

Steel spot

Construction steel: Today's domestic construction steel prices rose across the board. In terms of specific prices, the average price of 25 major cities nationwide was 4,508 yuan / ton, up 40 yuan / ton from the previous trading day, with South China and Central China increasing by a large margin, followed by the northeast and southwest, and the other regions were relatively small. Specifically, in early trading, many merchants opened up slightly, and the market transactions were general. However, due to tight resources, merchants controlled shipments, and some regions were reluctant to sell, and the market turnover turned weak. From the perspective of the recent market, the middlemen have higher sentiment and the terminal orders perform generally, so there is a phenomenon that the quantity can continue to be poor in the volume. This situation will lead to fluctuations or even adjustments in the price increase process. It is expected that the price of construction steel in the short term will fluctuate.

Hot-rolled coils: Today's hot rolling prices in 24 major cities nationwide rose slightly. The average price of 3.0 hot-rolled coils was 4,401 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the average national price of 4.75 hot-rolled coils was 4345. Yuan/ton, up 8 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. In the early trading market, the wait-and-see mood was strong, and the merchant's offer rose steadily, but the increase was narrowed. At present, the overall market demand is weak, downstream procurement is more cautious, and high-priced resources are difficult to trade. In the afternoon, with the fall of futures, the market mentality was weak, the trading volume was gradually reduced, and some market prices were slightly loose. However, in the short term, the market inventory pressure is not large, and with the higher order prices of steel mills, the market price will remain high. In addition, the price of Tangshan billet market remained stable today, and the current price of carbon billet is 4,000 yuan/ton. On the whole, it is expected that the price of the hot-rolled market will fluctuate tomorrow.

Plate: Today, the domestic plate market price rose slightly. The average price of 20mm plate in 23 major cities nationwide was 4479 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. In the early morning, the market continued to rise, the business mentality was more optimistic, and the price rose slightly. However, the current market demand has not improved significantly. In the afternoon, as the futures fall, the market wait-and-see mood is aggravated, the downstream purchase intention is not strong, and the transaction has shrunk. In addition, the price of Tangshan billet market remained stable today, and the current price of carbon billet is 4,000 yuan/ton. On the whole, it is expected that the price of the plate market will fluctuate tomorrow.

Cold-rolled coils: Today's national cold-rolled prices are mainly up. Price: 1.0 national cold rolling average price of 4835 yuan / ton, an increase of 15 yuan / ton compared with the previous working day. The main market price: Shanghai market 1.0mm WISCO coil offer 4790 yuan / ton, Guangzhou market 1.0mm Angang coil offer 4930 yuan / ton, Tianjin market 1.0mm Angang coil offer 4670 yuan / ton. Market: In the early trading, there was a slight increase in prices. The business mentality was optimistic and the market turnover was good. With the black commodity futures falling in the afternoon, the market's dark drop occurred and the transaction turned worse. Overall, the demand is still in the off-season, downstream on-demand procurement, although the spot market price is firm, but the high turnover is less. It is expected that the cold spot market price will continue to fluctuate and stabilize tomorrow.

Section steel: Today, the domestic steel market price continues to strengthen, and the average price of Gongjiao and H-beams is about 10-25 yuan/ton. Specifically, the Tangshan steel early-beam angle steel rose 20-30 yuan / ton, the channel steel is stable, the overall transaction is still low. At present, the billet is still operating strongly, and the steel mills are more cautious in operation. Due to the strength of the billet, the profit of the mill is at the edge or upside down, so some steel mills have stopped production and wait and see. Traders' panic mentality has increased, so high prices are still unable to do inventory, and downstream traders are also holding a wait-and-see attitude and purchasing more on demand. The price of East China's profile continued to rise slightly. With the increase in billet yesterday, there was a certain increase in the spot price, and some steel companies raised the price again to increase the spot cost support. In addition, due to the current low overall resources, there is a certain increase in price. South China's profile prices continue to rise, but the narrow range has narrowed, basically at 20-30 yuan / ton, according to the feedback price of the business continues to rise, the downstream acceptance is low, but the other side of the mill ex-factory price does not rise, the market price is also Have to follow up. It is expected that the domestic steel market price will maintain a small and strong operation tomorrow.

Steel pipe: Domestic pipe prices continued to rise on the 14th. In terms of varieties, the average price of welded pipe 4 inch 3.75mm is 4616 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the average price of galvanized pipe 4 inch 3.75mm is 5330 yuan/ton, which is higher than the previous trading day. 22 yuan / ton; seamless pipe 108 * 4.5mm national average price of 5411 yuan / ton, compared with the previous trading day price rose 37 yuan / ton. Today's national mainstream steel pipe prices are mainly rising, with an increase of 20-100 yuan / ton. In terms of welded pipes and galvanized pipes, the prices of raw materials are stable today, and the mainstream pipe manufacturers have not adjusted. From the perspective of local markets, some regions still have supplementary growth. In part, due to the impact of rain and rain, shipments in some areas were temporarily affected. In the short-term, supported by the upstream favorable policies, the cost is high and the market price is still slightly higher. In terms of seamless pipes, the price of raw material billets continued to rise today, and the price of many pipe mills was raised by RMB 100/ton. Although the market turnover feedback is general, it is rising with the rising trend. In addition, according to the merchants, the current delivery of some specifications is limited, or indirectly stimulated. It is expected that the market outlook will be boosted by rising raw material costs, and the price of seamless pipes will still rise slightly.

Futures: Today's domestic black commodity futures closed down across the board, iron ore led the decline, the main funds outflows, specifically: Today's Bureau of Statistics announced that China's July crude steel output was 81.24 million tons, an increase of 7.2%. China's industrial added value above designated size was 6% year-on-year in July, with a forecast of 6.3% and a previous value of 6%. China's urban fixed assets investment from January to July was 5.5% year-on-year, 6% expected, the previous value was 6%. Automobile sales continued to grow for three consecutive months, and the growth rate of home appliance retail sales fell sharply. The macroscopic data were not as expected for several months. The long-term financial capital was profitable and the various varieties all fell. The iron ore fell more deeply due to the restriction of production. The finished product was under pressure. The high-end shipments of spot stocks were blocked, and the transaction was not smooth. The market inventories are relatively low, and the short-term deep-falling space is limited. In general, the market will remain volatile and strong, but there will be some room for correction after the market has been pulled up sharply.

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