China's aluminum exports increase due to declining domestic demand

[China Aluminum] According to foreign news on September 8, Chinese aluminum exports have increased to a higher level in three years, while steel exports have increased by 26% over the same period of last year, due to excess domestic supply and improved international demand. According to data released by the General Administration of Customs, China exported 390,000 tons of aluminum and 7.76 million tons of steel in August. The export volume of aluminum increased by 22% over the same period of last year, which is a high level since July 2011. The increase in exports was due to the fact that domestic prices were still lower than overseas, while domestic production exceeded demand. China's consumption has declined because the manufacturing sector slowed for the first time in six months in August and property sales were weak. Ian Roper, an analyst at CLSA Ltd., said: "China's domestic steel and aluminum market is still sluggish and oversupply, and demand in other parts of the world is more stable." "As long as price arbitrage still exists, China will become a drag on the recovery of global commodity prices." According to data from the Metal Bulletin, China Aluminum futures prices have fallen below the global benchmark price, lme, since June 20. Citigroup analyst Ivan Szpakowski said that after adjusting for premiums, export arbitrage was higher since 2011. Shanghai rebar futures prices hit a low of 2,838 yuan ($462) per tonne on September 5. Sanford C. Bernstein & Co said that China's steel industry has an excess capacity of at least 200 million tons. China's real estate industry is still under pressure because sales from January to July decreased by 8.2% compared with the same period of last year. In July, the price of new homes in 64 cities out of the 70 cities monitored by the government declined, which was more since January 2011. According to Citigroup's Szpakowski, the aluminum export growth in September and October may slow down due to the disruption of Xinfa's refinery production in Xinjiang and the sharp drop in export arbitrage during the past 10 days.

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